Historical reconstruction of the Puget Sound (USA) groundfish community
Historical reconstruction of the Puget Sound (USA) groundfish community
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DOI：
10.3354/meps13547
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发表时间：
2021-01-07
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Lowry, Dayv
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Essington, Timothy;Ward, Eric J.;Lowry, Dayv
我们研究了美国华盛顿州普吉特海湾一系列底栖鱼类的历史和当代趋势，以了解底栖鱼类群落如何应对捕捞法规、气候、食物网和周围流域人口增长的变化。我们使用了标准化年度底拖网调查的当代数据（1990-2017年）和一艘研究船的历史日志信息（1948-1977年）。我们首先将贝叶斯模型拟合到当代数据，然后在将模型拟合到历史数据时，使用协变量的后验分布作为先验分布，从而对数据进行标准化，以解释时空对捕鱼率的影响。结果表明，15种植物的种群动态在两个时期内都存在高度变异，且变异模式在当代和历史时期相似。令人惊讶的是，在20世纪80年代末至90年代中期，在限制和禁止商业底拖网捕捞之后，几乎没有证据表明整个社区的复苏。斑点鱼和英国比目鱼在这两个时期的捕捞量都占主导地位，在历史时期常见的物种在当代时期也很常见。缺乏一致的社区变化来响应渔业法规和其他主要的社会和生态变化，可能表明城市河口受多种外部驱动因素影响的复杂动态，并说明在建立生态指标时需要考虑人口和社区的长期动态行为。
We examined historical and contemporary trends for a suite of groundfish species in Puget Sound, Washington, USA, to ask how the groundfish community has responded following shifts in fishing regulations, climate, food web, and a growing human population in the surrounding watershed. We used contemporary data (1990-2017) from a standardized annual bottom trawl survey with historical logbook information (1948-1977) from a research vessel. We standardized data to account for spatial and temporal effects on catch rate by first fitting a Bayesian model to the contemporary data, and then using the posterior distributions of the covariates as prior distributions when fitting models to the historical data. We found that most of the 15 species chosen for analysis had highly variable population dynamics within both time periods, and that patterns of variability were similar in the contemporary and historical time period. Surprisingly, there was little evidence of community-wide recovery following regulations that first limited and then banned commercial bottom trawling in the late 1980s to mid-1990s. Spotted raffish and English sole dominated catches in both time periods, and species that were common in the historical time period were also common in the contemporary time period. The absence of coherent community changes in response to fisheries regulations and other major social and ecological changes may signal the complex dynamics of an urban estuary that is subject to multiple external drivers, and speaks to the need to consider long-term dynamic behavior of populations and communities when establishing ecological indicators.