Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania
Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-020-01723-5
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
A. Notenbaert;J. Groot;M. Herrero;C. Birnholz;B. Paul;C. Pfeifer;S. Fraval;M. Lannerstad;J. Mcfadzean;J. Dungait;Joanne Morris;Ylva Ran;J. Barron;P. Tittonell
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文献类型：
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作者：
A. Notenbaert;J. Groot;M. Herrero;C. Birnholz;B. Paul;C. Pfeifer;S. Fraval;M. Lannerstad;J. Mcfadzean;J. Dungait;Joanne Morris;Ylva Ran;J. Barron;P. Tittonell
坦桑尼亚的牛奶需求和国内供应之间的差距很大，而且预计还会扩大。通过当地生产负担得起的牛奶来满足这种需求提供了一个机会，可以通过沿价值链产生的收入和就业来改善生产者和市场主体的福利。最大化牛奶产量、产量和盈利能力的努力需要与长期可持续性相平衡。我们使用清洁模型对坦桑尼亚乳业风险投资公司的两个生产系统的四种干预方案进行了事前环境和经济影响评估，并进行了经济可行性分析。干预方案建议通过(I)动物遗传改良、(Ii)改进饲料、(Iii)改善动物健康和(Iv)综合所有干预措施的一揽子措施来增加牛奶产量。结果表明，经济上可行的农场生产率提高高达140%，资源利用效率提高，温室气体(GHG)排放强度减少高达50%。在作物-牲畜混合系统中，水、土地和氮素需求的绝对增加要求仔细管理这些资源的存量和质量。预计温室气体排放量将全面上升，最大增幅为53%，其中维生素C水平的牛奶供应量增加89%。事实证明，清洁的工具在评估牲畜干预措施方面是有效的，这些干预措施以最小的环境足迹改善了收入和粮食安全。在这里，我们的模拟表明，由于目前的低生产率，在代表大多数牧群的广泛的农牧乳品系统中，可以获得最大的效率收益，同时温室气体总排放量的增加相对较少。
The gap between milk demand and domestic supply in Tanzania is large and projected to widen. Meeting such demand through local production of affordable milk presents an opportunity to improve the welfare of producers and market agents through the income and employment generated along the value chain (VC). Efforts to maximize milk yields, production and profitability need to be balanced with long-term sustainability. We combined environmental and economic ex-ante impact assessments of four intervention scenarios for two production systems in the Tanzanian dairy VC using the CLEANED model and an economic feasibility analysis. Intervention scenarios propose increases in milk production through (i) animal genetic improvement, (ii) improved feed, (iii) improved animal health and (iv) a package combining all interventions. Results show that economically feasible farm-level productivity increases of up to 140% go hand-in-hand with increased resource-use efficiency and up to 50% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities. Absolute increases in water, land and nitrogen requirements in mixed crop-livestock systems call for careful management of stocks and quality of these resources. An overall rise in GHG emissions is expected, with a maximum of 53% increase associated with an 89% increase in milk supply at VC level. The CLEANED tool proved effective to evaluate livestock interventions that improve incomes and food security with minimal environmental footprint. Here, our simulations suggest that due to current low productivity, the greatest efficiency gains in combination with relatively low increases in total GHG emissions can be made in the extensive agro-pastoral dairy systems, which represent the majority of herds.