Pandemic And Recession Effects On Mortality In The US During The First Year Of COVID-19
Pandemic And Recession Effects On Mortality In The US During The First Year Of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2022.00364
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发表时间：
2022-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Ruhm, Christopher J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ruhm, Christopher J.
从2020年3月1日到2021年2月28日，美国的死亡人数增加了近70万人，这是由两个经常相互抵消的机制造成的：这一时期发生的失业率变化所预测的，这里称为“衰退效应”，以及“流行病效应”所预测的，“这反映了SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19的直接后果，对健康和医疗保健的伴随影响，以及其他非失业率上升导致的死亡率变化。这项研究使用来自疾病控制和预防中心的数据，将这一时期的总死亡率分解为流行病和经济衰退的影响，并根据性别、种族和民族、年龄和14种原因进行了额外的估计。虽然大流行效应增加了许多类型的死亡率，但衰退效应降低了大多数类型的死亡率。如果没有经济衰退的影响，死亡人数将比实际多出近4万人。然而，有不同的影响，特别是外部原因。由于大流行的强烈影响，车辆和酒精相关的死亡和凶杀案有所增加。与此相反，衰退效应在药物死亡率上升中占更大份额。抵消了大流行和经济衰退的影响，导致自杀人数减少。了解这些不同的影响为减轻当前和未来健康流行病的政策努力提供了有用的教训。
There were almost 700,000 excess deaths in the US from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, resulting from two often counterbalancing mechanisms: those predicted by changes in unemployment rates occurring during this period, referred to here as the "recession effect," and those predicted by the "pandemic effect," which reflects direct consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19, accompanying impacts on health and medical care, and other changes in mortality not caused by greater joblessness. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this study decomposed total mortality in this period into pandemic and recession effects, with additional estimates by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and fourteen causes. Although the pandemic effect increased many types of mortality, the recession effect reduced most types of mortality. Without the recession effect, there would have been nearly 40,000 more deaths than actually occurred. However, there were disparate impacts, particularly for external causes. Vehicular and alcohol-related fatalities and homicides rose because of strong pandemic effects. In contrast, the recession effect accounted for a greater share of the rise in drug mortality. Offsetting pandemic and recession effects resulted in a decrease in the number of suicides. Understanding these diverse impacts provides useful lessons for policy efforts to mitigate the current and future health pandemics.