Implications of water constraints on electricity capacity expansion in the United States
Implications of water constraints on electricity capacity expansion in the United States
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0235-0
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Forman, Barton A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Lu;Hejazi, Mohamad;Forman, Barton A.
新的发电能力的发展受到水资源供应的制约。然而，在美国，可用水资源的充足性很少被纳入电力容量扩展的规划中。以前的研究水资源限制对美国发电的影响是有限的规模和鲁棒性。在这里，我们扩展了以前的研究，包括物理水的限制在一个国家级的模型，美国能源系统嵌入在一个全球综合评估模型（GCAM-美国），集成了供应和需求的影响下，一个一致的框架。我们发现，水资源限制在美国有两个一般性影响：（1）增加发电成本，导致最终使用部门的电气化略有下降，（2）激励水密集型技术在其设计寿命结束前提前退休，同时增加对水依赖性较低的技术的投资。我们的研究结果表明，水的可用性限制可能会导致大量的资本存量周转，并导致美国西部不可忽视的经济成本，而在美国东部的影响可能会更少。我们的工作强调了将水资源限制纳入电力容量规划的必要性，并强调了促进区域战略资源规划的州一级挑战。
The development of new electricity generation capacity is constrained by water resource availability. However, the sufficiency of available water resources is rarely incorporated into the planning of electricity capacity expansion in the United States. Previous studies on the implications of water constraints on US electricity generation are limited in terms of scale and robustness. Here, we extend previous studies by including physical water constraints within a state-level model of the US energy system embedded within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) that integrates both supply and demand effects under a consistent framework. We show that water constraints have two general effects across the United States: (1) to increase the cost of electricity generation, which results in slightly reduced electrification of end-use sectors, and (2) to incentivize early retirement of water-intensive technologies before the end of their designed lifetimes, while simultaneously boosting investment in less water-dependent technologies. Our results suggest that water availability constraints may cause substantial capital stock turnover and result in non-negligible economic costs for the western United States, whereas fewer impacts may be anticipated in the eastern United States. Our work emphasizes the need to integrate water availability constraints into electricity capacity planning and highlights the state-level challenges to facilitate regional strategic resource planning.