How many tree species and how many of them are there in the Amazon will go extinct?
How many tree species and how many of them are there in the Amazon will go extinct?
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0801915105
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发表时间：
2008-08-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
ter Steege, Hans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hubbell, Stephen P.;He, Fangliang;ter Steege, Hans
新建道路、农业项目、伐木和采矿正在不断扩大曾经原始的亚马逊森林的面积。千年生态系统评估根据未来几十年森林覆盖面的预计损失预测，亚马逊河流域的一大部分树种将灭绝。这些灭绝率的估计有多准确？我们使用中性理论来估计的数量，相对丰度，和范围大小的树种在亚马逊metacompatibility，并估计可能的树木物种保护下公布的乐观和非乐观的亚马逊的情况。我们估计，亚马逊盆地的巴西部分有（或曾经有）11,210个树种达到直径> 10厘米（胸径）。在这些物种中，有3,248个物种的种群规模超过100万个个体，并且，忽略可能的气候变化影响，几乎所有这些常见物种都在乐观和不乐观的情况下存在。然而，在丰度谱的稀有端，中性理论预测存在大约5，308个物种，每个物种的个体数<10，000，在非乐观的森林砍伐情景下，预计灭绝率接近50%，即使在乐观情景下，损失率也接近37%。这些物种中的大多数都有小范围的大小，非常容易受到当地栖息地的损失。在100个随机模拟的合奏，我们发现平均总灭绝率的20%和33%的树种在巴西亚马逊河流域的乐观和非乐观的情况下，分别。
New roads, agricultural projects, logging, and mining are claiming an ever greater area of once-pristine Amazonian forest. The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA) forecasts the extinction of a large fraction of Amazonian tree species based on projected loss of forest cover over the next several decades. How accurate are these estimates of extinction rates? We use neutral theory to estimate the number, relative abundance, and range size of tree species in the Amazon metacommunity, and estimate likely tree-species extinctions under published optimistic and nonoptimistic Amazon scenarios. We estimate that the Brazilian portion of the Amazon Basin has (or had) 11,210 tree species that reach sizes > 10 cm DBH (stem diameter at breast height). Of these, 3,248 species have population sizes > 1 million individuals, and, ignoring possible climate-change effects, almost all of these common species persist under both optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios. At the rare end of the abundance spectrum, however, neutral theory predicts the existence of approximate to 5,308 species with < 10,000 individuals each that are expected to suffer nearly a 50% extinction rate under the nonoptimistic deforestation scenario and an approximate to 37% loss rate even under the optimistic scenario. Most of these species have small range sizes and are highly vulnerable to local habitat loss. In ensembles of 100 stochastic simulations, we found mean total extinction rates of 20% and 33% of tree species in the Brazilian Amazon under the optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios, respectively.