Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model
Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model
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DOI：
10.1093/gerona/51a.3.b183
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发表时间：
1996-05-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Pike, MC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Finch, CE;Pike, MC
这项研究检验了用Gompertz死亡率模型获得的最大寿命预测，该模型假设成年人口与年龄相关的死亡率存在恒定的加速速度。种群规模N对最大寿命(t(Max))的影响很小，因为N的数值影响被减少到ln/[ln(N)]。相比之下，Gompertz指数死亡系数α对t(Max)的影响更大，t(Max)随L/α的变化而变化。对选定的哺乳动物和鸟类的研究表明，报告的当地种群的t(Max)与根据这些当地种群的死亡率系数计算的t(Max)非常吻合。然而，世界文献中报告的t(Max)在这里被指定为“世界纪录”，它显示出一些物种与基于当地种群的预测t(Max)有很大的差异。我们证明，这些差异不是由于种群大小造成的，而是代表了可能包括基因、饮食和环境危险在内的其他因素。人类t(Max)的潜在增长将主要取决于减缓与年龄相关的死亡率加速。如果将限制饮食在老鼠身上实现的死亡率减缓的程度应用于人类，那么人类预期寿命的中位数将接近目前的t(Max)120岁。
This study examined, maximum life span predictions obtained with the Gompertz mortality rate model, which assumes that there is a constant rate of acceleration in the age-related mortality of adult populations. The influence of population size N on the maximum life span (t(max)) was shown to be small, because the numeric impact of N is reduced to ln/[ln(N)]. In contrast, the Gompertz exponential mortality coefficient alpha has much more influence on the t(max), which varies as l/alpha. Examination of select mammals and birds showed that t(max) as reported for local populations agrees very well with that calculated from mortality rate coefficients for these local populations. However, the t(max) as reported from the world literature, which is designated here as the ''world record,'' shows major discrepancies for some species from the predicted t(max) based on the local population. We demonstrate that these discrepancies are not due to population size, but represent other factors that may include genotype, diet, and environmental dangers. Potential increases in human t(max) will depend mostly on slowing the age-related acceleration of mortality. If the degree of mortality rate slowing achieved in rats by diet restriction is applied to humans, then the median human life expectancy would approach the present t(max) of 120 years.