Implementing comprehensive offender behaviour in a realistic agent-based model of burglary
Implementing comprehensive offender behaviour in a realistic agent-based model of burglary
复制标题
在基于代理的现实入室盗窃模型中实施全面的犯罪行为
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Heppenstall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Malleson;L. See;A. Evans;A. Heppenstall
自从第一个犯罪模式被记录下来以来，解释和模拟犯罪模式就一直是决策者、犯罪学家、社会改革者和警察的工作。犯罪是一种特别难以建模的现象，因为它具有内在的复杂性;犯罪模式是由大量的人与人以及人与环境的微观相互作用建立起来的，这些相互作用最终导致了个体犯罪事件。常用的建模技术，如回归，很难充分说明犯罪系统的动态。他们在总体尺度上工作，从而忽视了重要的个人水平的变化，也很难解释不同类型的人类行为的影响。此外，环境犯罪学中的重要概念-如个别罪犯的认识空间或罪犯决策的异质性-在解决高于个人的问题时不能直接包括在内。本研究针对传统犯罪数学模型的缺点，建立了一个基于代理的仿真与独特的罪犯行为模型。通过使用佩奇框架来模拟人类行为，代理人被赋予了驱动其行为并最终导致犯罪的需求和动机。由于该模型使用真实世界的环境数据，因此可用于对现有城市进行预测。该文件表明，使用这个框架，结合基于代理的模型，可以复制模式和趋势，支持目前的理论理解的犯罪行为。
Explaining and modelling crime patterns is an exercise that has taxed policy-makers, criminologists, social reformers and the police ever since the first crime patterns were recorded. Crime is a particularly difficult phenomenon to model because of its inherent complexity; crime patterns are built up from a multitude of human-human and human-environment micro-interactions that ultimately lead to individual crime events. Commonly used modelling techniques, such as regression, struggle to fully account for the dynamics of the crime system. They work at aggregate scales thereby disregarding important individual-level variation and also struggle to account for the effects of different types of human behaviour. Furthermore, important concepts from environmental criminology – such as individual offender awareness spaces or heterogeneity in offender decision-making – cannot be included directly when working at a resolution above that of the individual. This research addresses the drawbacks associated with traditional mathematical crime models by building an agent-based simulation with a unique offender behavioural model. Through use of the PECS framework for modelling human behaviour, agents are endowed with needs and motives that drive their behaviour and ultimately lead to the commission of crime. As the model uses real-world environmental data, it can be used to make predictions in existing cities. The paper demonstrates that use of this framework, in combination with an agent-based model, can replicate patterns and trends that are supported by the current theoretical understanding of offending behaviour.