Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate
Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-023-01600-z
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发表时间：
2023-02-06
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Brando，Paulo M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Uribe，Maria del Rosario;Coe，Michael T.;Brando，Paulo M.
热带生态系统以生物质的形式储存了世界上一半以上的地上活碳，而水的可用性在其分布中起着关键作用。尽管热带地区的降水和温度正在发生变化，但它们对生物量和碳储存的影响仍然不确定。在这里，我们利用气候与地上生物量含量之间的经验关系来表明，潮湿地区的收缩和强烈干旱时期地区的扩张，导致新热带地区的大量碳损失。在低排放情景下（代表性浓度路径 4.5），这可能导致 1950 年至 2100 年地上活性碳净减少约 14.4–23.9 PgC (6.8–12%)。在高排放情景下（代表性浓度路径 8.5），整个热带地区的净碳损失可能会翻倍，达到约 28.2–39.7 PgC (13.3–20.1%)。南美洲潮湿地区的收缩约占这一变化的 40%。气候减缓战略可以防止一半的碳损失，并有助于维持自然热带净碳汇。
Tropical ecosystems store over half of the world’s aboveground live carbon as biomass, and water availability plays a key role in its distribution. Although precipitation and temperature are shifting across the tropics, their effect on biomass and carbon storage remains uncertain. Here we use empirical relationships between climate and aboveground biomass content to show that the contraction of humid regions, and expansion of those with intense dry periods, results in substantial carbon loss from the neotropics. Under a low emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) this could cause a net reduction of aboveground live carbon of ~14.4–23.9 PgC (6.8–12%) from 1950–2100. Under a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) net carbon losses could double across the tropics, to ~28.2–39.7 PgC (13.3–20.1%). The contraction of humid regions in South America accounts for ~40% of this change. Climate mitigation strategies could prevent half of the carbon losses and help maintain the natural tropical net carbon sink.