Perceived ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks
Perceived ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-015-2021-2
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
T. Fujimi;Masahide Watanabe;Ryuji Kakimoto;H. Tatano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Fujimi;Masahide Watanabe;Ryuji Kakimoto;H. Tatano
为了制定有效的风险缓解政策并改善风险沟通，了解个人如何看待某些风险的模糊性非常重要。大量的研究表明，个体的行为对模糊性很敏感。因此，本研究通过两个研究问题来探讨日本房主如何感知地震和房屋破坏风险的模糊性：（1）人们感知模糊性的程度如何？（2）影响歧义感知程度的因素有哪些？我们对日本1200名房主进行了调查。受访者被要求陈述他们对地震和房屋破坏风险的主观概率和模糊性。接下来，我们研究了社会经济特征影响他们的感知模糊应用样本选择模型。研究结果揭示了与歧义相关的四个方面。首先，一些房主认为相当大的模糊性，而大多数观察到的程度很小。第二，平均而言，房主认为房屋破坏风险的模糊性比地震风险。第三，社会经济特征和房屋属性对歧义感知有影响。最后，从制定减轻地震造成房屋破坏风险的政策的角度来看，地震诊断可以帮助纠正主观风险，减少人们对这些风险的模糊认识。
To create effective risk mitigation policies and improve risk communications, it is important to understand how individuals perceive ambiguity about certain risks. A significant number of studies have demonstrated that an individual’s behavior is sensitive to ambiguity. Therefore, this study explores how Japanese homeowners perceive ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks by focusing on two research questions: (1) To what degree do people perceive ambiguity? and (2) What are the factors that affect the degree of perceived ambiguity? We administered a survey to 1200 homeowners in Japan. Respondents were asked to state their subjective probabilities and ambiguities about earthquake and house destruction risks. Next, we examined the socioeconomic characteristics affecting their perceived ambiguities by applying a sample selection model. The findings reveal four aspects related to ambiguity. First, some homeowners perceived considerable ambiguity, while the majority observed small degrees of it. Second, on average, homeowners perceived less ambiguity about house destruction risk compared to earthquake risk. Third, socioeconomic characteristics and house attributes had an effect on the perception of ambiguity. Finally, from the perspective of creating policies that mitigate house destruction risks due to earthquakes, seismic diagnoses can help correct subjective risks and reduce the perceived ambiguity regarding them.