A spatial-temporal model for assessing the effects of intervillage connectivity in schistosomiasis transmission
A spatial-temporal model for assessing the effects of intervillage connectivity in schistosomiasis transmission
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8306.2006.00497.x
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Spear, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xu, B;Gong, P;Spear, R
空间相互作用和连通性是传染病传播的重要因素。我们开发了日本血吸虫病传播的时空模型，这是一种由寄生虫引起的疾病，这些寄生虫通过地表水传播，生活在蜗牛和人类宿主中。该模型使用基于邻里关系和水文连通性的空间相互作用矩阵来评估村间寄生虫传播对疾病传播和控制的影响。卫星遥感数据作为模型的输入，用于预测每个村庄内的蜗牛密度，并用于推导用于量化水文连通性的数字高程模型。在西昌市附近的227个村庄，在不同水平的连通性和有无化疗控制的情况下，对该模型进行了模拟，中国说。连通性的提高导致了特定村庄内寄生虫的地理聚集，与低连通性和无连通性模拟相比，这些寄生虫产生了更高水平的蠕虫负担。一个村庄内的蠕虫负担可以随着连接而增加或减少，这取决于寄生虫的进口和出口程度。在选定的村庄进行大规模化疗的模拟可以有益地减少延伸到下游邻居的蠕虫负担。这些发现表明，在设计具有成本效益的控制策略时，可以更好地了解村际连通性。
Spatial interaction and connectivity are important factors in the spread of infectious diseases. We developed a spatial-temporal model of schistosomiasis japonica transmission, a disease caused by parasites that are transported via surface water and that live in both snail and human hosts. The model employed a spatial interaction matrix based on neighborhood relationships and hydrologic connectivity to assess the effect of intervillage parasitic transport on disease transmission and control. Satellite remote-sensing data served as input to the model for predicting snail density within each village, and for deriving a digital elevation model that was used to quantify hydrologic connectivity. Simulations of the model with varying levels of connectivity and in the presence and absence of chemotherapy control were run for 227 villages near Xichang City, in southwest Sichuan province, China. Increasing connectivity resulted in a geographic clustering of parasites within particular villages that produced higher levels of worm burden than in low and no connectivity simulations. Worm burden within a village could either increase or decrease with connectivity, depending on the degree to which parasites were imported and exported. Simulations of mass chemotherapy in select villages can result in a beneficial reduction in worm burden that extends to downstream neighbors. These findings suggest that better understanding of intervillage connectedness can be exploited in the design of cost-effective control strategies.