Misinformation can prevent the suppression of epidemics.

Misinformation can prevent the suppression of epidemics.
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错误的信息可以阻止对流行病的抑制。

DOI:
10.1098/rsif.2021.0668
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发表时间:
2022-03
期刊:
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Yates CA
Yates CA
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Sontag A;Rogers T;Yates CA

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戴口罩和保持社交距离等非药物干预措施作为大流行病控制措施的有效性,取决于有良知和消息灵通的公众,他们了解并准备听从建议。不幸的是,公共卫生信息可能会被相互竞争的错误信息和阴谋论所破坏,并在已经不信任专家意见的社区中病毒式传播。在这篇文章中,我们提出并分析了一个简单的模型,疾病的传播和意识动态之间的相互作用,在一个异质的人口组成的信任个人谁寻求更好的质量信息,并会采取预防措施,和不信任的个人拒绝更好的质量信息,并有整体的风险行为。我们发现,随着不信任人口密度的增加,该模型通过一个阶段过渡到一个状态,在该状态下,重大疫情不能被抑制。我们的工作突出表明,迫切需要采取有效的干预措施,以增加信任和告知公众。
The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing and social distancing, as control measures for pandemic disease relies upon a conscientious and well-informed public who are aware of and prepared to follow advice. Unfortunately, public health messages can be undermined by competing misinformation and conspiracy theories, spread virally through communities that are already distrustful of expert opinion. In this article, we propose and analyse a simple model of the interaction between disease spread and awareness dynamics in a heterogeneous population composed of both trusting individuals who seek better quality information and will take precautionary measures, and distrusting individuals who reject better quality information and have overall riskier behaviour. We show that, as the density of the distrusting population increases, the model passes through a phase transition to a state in which major outbreaks cannot be suppressed. Our work highlights the urgent need for effective interventions to increase trust and inform the public.
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