Development of an energy-economic model with endogenous technological progress and feasibility study of CCS systems
Development of an energy-economic model with endogenous technological progress and feasibility study of CCS systems
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开发具有内生技术进步的能源经济模型以及 CCS 系统的可行性研究
DOI：
10.1002/htj.21078
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Kusunoki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Nakata;T. Furubayashi;T. Kusunoki;T. Kusunoki
本研究的主要目标是开发考虑内生技术发展的自下而上的能源经济模型。设计的模型分析了CCS技术在日本电力市场的可行性，以得出最佳的碳减排方案。有两个因素先于技术进步，即基于边做边学的学习曲线和公共研发投资。该分析是通过一组情景进行计算的，这些情景基于技术特征的替代假设：化学和物理碳吸收技术。根据模型估计，我们得出结论，技术进步降低了 CCS 转换技术的发电成本，因为 CCS 系统需要额外的安装单位。化学吸收发电成本通过学习机制显着降低其边际单位成本。燃气发电厂的供应比例在分析时间段内增加。与2050年基准情景相比，CCS的引入使碳排放水平降低17%。技术进步对系统总成本影响不大；然而，边做边学将 CCS 引入市场，而不是引入研发活动。研究中没有对私营部门的研发工作或知识溢出进行建模；然而，它们也有可能为减少碳排放做出贡献。 © 2013 Wiley periodicals, Inc. 《热力跨亚洲研究》，43(4): 332–351，2014 年； 2013 年 10 月 3 日在线发布于 Wiley 在线图书馆 (wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/htj)。 DOI 10.1002/htj.21078
The main objective of this research is to develop a bottom‐up energy‐economic model considering endogenous technological development. The designed model analyzes the feasibility of CCS technologies in the Japanese electricity market to derive an optimum carbon reduction scenario. Two factors, a learning curve based on learning‐by‐doing and public R&D investment, precede technological progress. The analysis is calculated with a set of scenarios, which is based on alternative assumptions for technological characteristics: chemical and physical carbon absorptive technology. From modeling estimation, we conclude that technological progress reduces the generation costs of conversion technologies with CCS, as a CCS system acquires an additional unit of installation. Generation cost with chemical absorption remarkably reduces its marginal unit cost through a learning mechanism. The supply fraction from a gas‐fired power plant increases over the analytical time period. The introduction of CCS reduces carbon emission level 17% compared to the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological progress has little impact on the total system costs; however, learning‐by‐doing pushes the introduction of CCS into the market rather than into a R&D activity. Research and development efforts in the private sector or knowledge spillover are not modeled in the study; however, they have the potential to contribute to the mitigation of carbon emission as well. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Heat Trans Asian Res, 43(4): 332–351, 2014; Published online 3 October 2013 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/htj). DOI 10.1002/htj.21078