Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies
Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.066
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Yasunari, T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mathison, Camilla;Wiltshire, Andrew;Yasunari, T.
适应对世界各地的地区越来越重要，因为气候的巨大变化可能对人口和工业产生影响。雅鲁藏布江-恒河流域人口众多，农业是主要产业，水力发电业不断发展，使该地区容易受到印度夏季季风变化的影响，而印度夏季季风是每年的主要水源。HighNoon项目完成了1960年至2100年印度和喜马拉雅地区四个高分辨率（25公里）区域气候模式模拟，为该地区提供了一个模拟集合。在本文中，我们已经评估了这些集水区的合奏，比较模拟与观测，给信任的模拟提供了一个现实的代表性的大气过程，因此未来的气候。我们已经说明了如何使用这些模拟来提供有关未来潜在气候影响的信息，从而帮助使用气候学和阈值分析进行决策。集合分析显示，从基线（1970-2000年）到2050年代（2040-2070年），气温上升了2至4摄氏度，最高气温高于28摄氏度和35摄氏度的天数也有所增加。降水和径流的确定性较低，它们显示出相当大的变化，即使在这个相对较小的集合中，跨度为零。HighNoon集合是该地区最完整的数据，为雅鲁藏布江-恒河地区的区域气候提供了广泛的变量的有用信息，但是模型中还没有包括可能对未来气候模拟产生影响的过程。我们已经讨论了这些过程，并表明从HighNoon集合的范围在幅度上与包括这些过程的投影中的潜在变化相似。因此，适应战略必须是有力和灵活的，要考虑到科学的进步和自然环境的变化。(C)2012 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25 km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4 degrees C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28 degrees C and 35 degrees C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.