A Physically Based Statistical Model With the Parameterized Topographic Effect for Predicting the Weakening of Tropical Cyclones After Landfall Over China
A Physically Based Statistical Model With the Parameterized Topographic Effect for Predicting the Weakening of Tropical Cyclones After Landfall Over China
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl099630
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发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lu Liu;Yuqing Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lu Liu;Yuqing Wang
热带气旋强度的准确预报很重要，但也具有挑战性。本文介绍了一种基于物理的预测中国登陆后TC减弱的代数衰减模型，该模型假设TC减弱速率与TC最大近地面风速的平方成正比。在该代数衰减模型中，通过最小化1980-2020年中国大陆所有着陆TCs的预报误差，确定了一个包含地形效应的衰减参数，该衰减参数是通过修改地表阻力系数和归一化地形高度来实现的。结果表明，考虑地形效应的代数衰减模型比常用的指数衰减模型对中国大陆登陆后TCs的衰减效果更好，特别是当TCs向内陆移动时。与以往的指数衰减模型不同，由于地形的变化，该模型在TC轨道上具有随时间变化的衰减参数。
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is important but challenging. In this study, a physically based algebraic decay model for predicting TC weakening after landfall over China is introduced, which assumes the TC weakening rate is proportional to the square of the TC maximum near‐surface wind speed. In this algebraic decay model, a decay parameter including the topographic effect by modifying the surface drag coefficient with the normalized terrain height is determined by minimizing the forecast errors for all landfalling TCs over mainland China during 1980–2020. Results show that the algebraic decay model with topographic effect considered performs better than the commonly used exponential decay model for TCs after landfall over mainland China, especially when TCs move further inland. This new model has a time‐dependent decay parameter along the TC track due to the topographic variation, which is different from the previous exponential decay model.