Exploring the utility of drought indicators to assess climate risks to agricultural productivity in a humid climate
Exploring the utility of drought indicators to assess climate risks to agricultural productivity in a humid climate
复制标题
DOI：
10.2166/nh.2017.010
复制
发表时间：
2018-04
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
D. Haro-Monteagudo;A. Daccache;J. Knox
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Haro-Monteagudo;A. Daccache;J. Knox
干旱指数已被水文研究界广泛用于了解水资源系统的干旱风险。在湿润的气候中，例如在英格兰，大多数农业生产依赖于夏季降雨，但关于干旱风险的发生和对作物生产力的潜在农艺影响的知识仍然有限。本文评估了将标准化降水指数（SPI）、标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和Palmer干旱严重程度指数（PDSI）等3个成熟干旱指数的数据与马铃薯（一种干旱敏感的高价值作物）生物物理作物模型的模拟产量相结合的效用。对干旱发生与产量响应之间的关系进行了统计评价。研究发现，SPEI-3干旱指标最适合监测水的可用性，从而监测雨养和灌溉生产的干旱情况。制作“热图”是为了说明模拟的SUBSTOR-Potato产量与SPEI在不同的汇总期和月滞后之间的相关性。最后，将产出用于评估可以改进适应战略决策的替代方法，以减少农业系统对未来干旱事件的脆弱性。
Drought indices have been extensively used by the hydrological research community for understanding drought risks to water resources systems. In a humid climate, such as in England, most agricultural production is rainfed and dependent on summer rainfall, but knowledge of drought risks in terms of their occurrence and potential agronomic impacts on crop productivity remains limited. This paper evaluated the utility of integrating data from three well-established drought indices, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), with simulated yield outputs from a biophysical crop model for potato, a drought-sensitive and high-value crop. The relationships between drought onset and yield response were statistically evaluated. The SPEI-3 drought indicator was found to be most suited to monitoring water availability and hence drought conditions for both rainfed and irrigated production. ‘Heat maps’ were produced to illustrate the strength of the correlation between the modelled SUBSTOR-Potato yields and SPEI for different aggregation periods and monthly lags. Finally, the outputs were used to assess alternative ways in which decision-making could be improved regarding adaptation strategies to reduce agricultural system vulnerability to future drought events.