Application of Gray Metabolic GM (1,1) Model in Prediction of Annual Total Yields of Chinese Aquatic Products
Application of Gray Metabolic GM (1,1) Model in Prediction of Annual Total Yields of Chinese Aquatic Products
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DOI：
10.22004/ag.econ.147793
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发表时间：
2013-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Songqian Huang;Weimin Wang;C. Zeng;Shuang Hao;Xiaojuan Cao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Songqian Huang;Weimin Wang;C. Zeng;Shuang Hao;Xiaojuan Cao
未来五年中国水产品年总产量预测（2011-2015年），基于灰色系统理论和方法，本文首先建立了常规GM（1，1）模型和灰色新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型分别对2006年中国水产品年总产量进行预测-2009年，并比较了这两种模型的预测精度。在此基础上，选择精度较高的模型对未来5年中国水产品年总产量进行预测。结果表明，灰色新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型预测精度高，误差小，更适合于水产品年产量的预测。因此，采用灰色新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型对2011-2015年中国水产品年总产量进行预测。未来5年的年总产量预测结果分别为5532、5746、5972、6202和6443万吨，年均增长率约为3.7%，远高于《全国渔业发展“十二五”规划（2011 - 2015年）》提出的2.2%的目标。研究结果表明，灰色新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型适用于水产品产量预测，2011-2015年我国水产品总产量完全能够实现“十二五”规划目标。
To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years (2011-2015), based on the theory and method of gray system, this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM (1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM (1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then, it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM (1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error, thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore, it adopts the gray metabolic GM (1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55.32, 57.46, 59.72, 62.02 and 64.43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3.7%, much higher than the objective of 2.2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development (2011 to 2015). The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM (1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.