Why Terrorism Does Not Work
Why Terrorism Does Not Work
复制标题
为什么恐怖主义不起作用
作者：
Max Abrahms
这是第一篇对大量恐怖组织样本的政策有效性进行分析的文章。它包括自 2001 年以来美国国务院指定的所有外国恐怖组织 (FTO)。FTO 成功的关键变量是战术变量：目标选择。对平民目标的袭击多于对军事目标的袭击的恐怖组织往往无法实现其政策目标，无论其性质如何。与普遍认为恐怖主义是政治胁迫的有效手段的观点相反，大量案例表明，首先，当代恐怖组织很少实现其政策目标；其次，成功率低是恐怖主义策略本身所固有的。文章的大部分内容阐述了为什么各国在平民成为主要目标时不愿做出政策让步的理论。
This is the first article to analyze a large sample of terrorist groups in terms of their policy effectiveness. It includes every foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designated by the U.S. Department of State since 2001. The key variable for FTO success is a tactical one: target selection. Terrorist groups whose attacks on civilian targets outnumber attacks on military targets do not tend to achieve their policy objectives, regardless of their nature. Contrary to the prevailing view that terrorism is an effective means of political coercion, the universe of cases suggests that, first, contemporary terrorist groups rarely achieve their policy objectives and, second, the poor success rate is inherent to the tactic of terrorism itself. The bulk of the article develops a theory for why countries are reluctant to make policy concessions when their civilian populations are the primary target.