Evaluation of Uncertainties Associated with the Determination of Community Drug Use through the Measurement of Sewage Drug Biomarkers
Evaluation of Uncertainties Associated with the Determination of Community Drug Use through the Measurement of Sewage Drug Biomarkers
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DOI：
10.1021/es302722f
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发表时间：
2013-02-05
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Zuccato, Ettore
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Castiglioni, Sara;Bijlsma, Lubertus;Zuccato, Ettore
本研究的目的是通过对非法药物污水生物标志物的化学分析，全面解决与估计社区药物消费的所有步骤相关的不确定性。使用从最近的欧洲范围内调查和现有文献中收集的数据，评估了采样、化学分析、污水中药物生物标志物的稳定性、药物使用的反算（可卡因的具体情况）以及流域人口规模估计的不确定性。通过分析分别从 19 个污水处理厂 (STP) 收集的标准化问卷和实验室间研究 (ILS) 的结果，评估了采样方案和分析测量的质量。对现有文献的广泛审查已用于评估污水中药物生物标志物的稳定性以及与可卡因使用反算相关的不确定性。对估计流域人口规模的不同方法进行了比较，收集到的数据之间的变异性非常高（7-55%）。因此，减少不确定性的合理策略是根据具体情况选择最可靠的估计。在其他情况下，最高的不确定性与污水药物生物标志物的分析（不确定性为相对标准偏差；RSD：ILS 的 6-26%）和可卡因使用的反算（不确定性；RSD：26%）有关。如果考虑本工作中概述的具体要求，剩余步骤中的不确定性可以保持在 10% 以下。对于每个步骤，都提出并讨论了最佳实践方案，以减少整个过程的不确定性并将其保持在最低限度，并提高药物使用估计的可靠性。
The aim of this study was to integrally address the uncertainty associated with all the steps used to estimate community drug consumption through the chemical analysis of sewage biomarkers of illicit drugs. Uncertainty has been evaluated for sampling, chemical analysis, stability of drug biomarkers in sewage, back-calculation of drug use (specific case of cocaine), and estimation of population size in a catchment using data collected from a recent Europe-wide investigation and from the available literature. The quality of sampling protocols and analytical measurements has been evaluated by analyzing standardized questionnaires collected from 19 sewage treatments plants (STPs) and the results of an interlaboratory study (ILS), respectively. Extensive reviews of the available literature have been used to evaluate stability of drug biomarkers in sewage and the uncertainty related to back-calculation of cocaine use. Different methods for estimating population size in a catchment have been compared and the variability among the collected data was very high (7-55%). A reasonable strategy to reduce uncertainty was therefore to choose the most reliable estimation case by case. In the other cases, the highest uncertainties are related to the analysis of sewage drug biomarkers (uncertainty as relative standard deviation; RSD: 6-26% from ILS) and to the back-calculation of cocaine use (uncertainty; RSD: 26%). Uncertainty can be kept below 10% in the remaining steps, if specific requirements outlined in this work are considered. For each step, a best practice protocol has been suggested and discussed to reduce and keep to a minimum the uncertainty of the entire procedure and to improve the reliability of the estimates of drug use.