Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-19
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Peters, Glen P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Quere, Corinne;Jackson, Robert B.;Peters, Glen P.
新冠肺炎疫情期间的政府政策极大地改变了世界各地的能源需求模式。许多国际边境被关闭，人们被限制在家中，这减少了交通，改变了消费模式。在这里，我们汇编了政府政策和活动数据，以估计强制监禁期间二氧化碳排放量的减少。到2020年4月初，与2019年的平均水平相比，全球每日二氧化碳排放量减少了-17%(+/-1西格玛为-11%至-25%)，略低于一半的原因是地面交通的变化。在高峰期，个别国家的排放量平均减少了-26%。对2020年年度排放量的影响取决于限制的持续时间，如果在6月中旬之前恢复流行前的状况，最低估计为-4%(-2%至-7%)，如果在2020年底之前在全球范围内保持一些限制，最高估计为-7%(-3%至-13%)。危机后的政府行动和经济激励措施可能会在未来几十年影响全球二氧化碳排放路径。
Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by -17% (-11 to -25% for +/- 1 sigma) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by -26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of -4% (-2 to -7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of -7% (-3 to -13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades.