The Empirics of Growth: An Update
The Empirics of Growth: An Update
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增长的经验：更新
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Collins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barry Bosworth;S. Collins
我们认为，增长核算和增长回归分析都可以对增长过程产生有用的见解，特别是当用于研究长期的大样本国家时。以前研究结论中明显的可变性很大程度上源于测量问题、数据或定义的差异，以及未能包括其他条件变量。使用了84个国家1960-2000年的数据，并将注意力集中在衡量和一致性问题上，我们得出结论，资本积累和效率收益都是增长过程的核心。我们充其量也就是发现，增长和学校教育增加之间的相关性很弱。我们发现，跨国经济增长的大部分差异可以用初始条件和制度的差异来很好地解释。然而，这些变量几乎不能洞察1980年前后增长率的变化，政策差异起到的作用也不大。
We argue that both growth accounting and growth regression analysis can yield useful insights into the growth process, particularly when used to study a large sample of countries over a long period. Much of the apparent variability in conclusions of previous studies arises from measurement problems, differences in data or definitions, and failure to include other conditioning variables. Using data for eighty-four countries over 1960-2000, and focusing attention on issues of measurement and consistency, we conclude that both capital accumulation and efficiency gains are central to the growth process. We find, at best, a weak correlation between growth and increased schooling. And we find that most of the variation in cross-national economic growth is well explained by differences in initial conditions and institutions. However, these variables provide little insight into the changes in growth rates before and after 1980, and policy differences play a minor role.