Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review.
Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review.
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DOI：
10.1177/0272989x10369005
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发表时间：
2011-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Feuer EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rutter CM;Zaslavsky AM;Feuer EJ
健康结果的微观模拟模型(MSM)模拟与疾病过程的关键组成部分相关的单个事件历史；这些模拟的生命历史可以被汇总以估计治疗对疾病结果的总体水平的影响以及治疗的相对有效性。虽然MSM被用来解决广泛的研究问题，但由于建模人员之间缺乏沟通，MSM方法的方法论改进已经放缓。此外，几乎没有资源来指导可能希望使用MSM预测来为决策提供信息的个人。本文介绍了微模拟建模的概述，重点介绍了MSM在卫生政策问题上的开发和应用。我们讨论了MSM的目标、MSM的总体构成、选择MSM参数以重现观察或预期结果的方法(校准)、MSM检查的方法(验证)以及与报告和解释MSM结果相关的问题(敏感性分析、可变性报告和模型透明度)。MSM正越来越多地被用来提供指导卫生政策决策的信息。这种使用的增加带来了政策研究人员更好地了解MSM的需要，以及开发和应用MSM的方法的持续改进。
Microsimulation models (MSMs) for health outcomes simulate individual event histories associated with key components of a disease process; these simulated life histories can be aggregated to estimate population-level effects of treatment on disease outcomes and the comparative effectiveness of treatments. Although MSMs are used to address a wide range of research questions, methodological improvements in MSM approaches have been slowed by the lack of communication among modelers. In addition, there are few resources to guide individuals who may wish to use MSM projections to inform decisions. This article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application of MSMs for health policy questions. We discuss MSM goals, overall components of MSMs, methods for selecting MSM parameters to reproduce observed or expected results (calibration), methods for MSM checking (validation), and issues related to reporting and interpreting MSM findings (sensitivity analyses, reporting of variability, and model transparency). MSMs are increasingly being used to provide information to guide health policy decisions. This increased use brings with it the need both for better understanding of MSMs by policy researchers, and continued improvement in methods for developing and applying MSMs.