Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures
Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oneear.2020.11.002
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发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Siegert;R. Alley;E. Rignot;J. Englander;R. Corell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Siegert;R. Alley;E. Rignot;J. Englander;R. Corell
虽然二十世纪海平面上升的主要原因是海水的热膨胀，但冰川和冰盖的质量损失现在是每年更大的贡献者。然而，冰盖将如何应对进一步变暖还存在不确定性，这降低了人们对二十一世纪海平面预测的信心。 2019 年，为了解决这一不确定性，政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 报告称，如果到 2100 年气温升高超过 4°C，海平面较 1950 年代水平的上升幅度可能会在 0.61–1.10 米以内。IPCC 承认，通过未完全纳入评估中使用的模型的机制，海平面可能会出现更大幅度的上升。从这个角度来看，我们讨论了预测海平面变化所面临的挑战，并讨论了为什么IPCC在强烈变暖情况下的2100年海平面范围集中在可能结果的低端。我们认为，高于此范围的结果比低于此范围的可能性要大得多，并讨论了决策者如何从重新定义 IPCC 术语中受益，以避免无意中掩盖最坏的情况。
While twentieth century sea-level rise was dominated by thermal expansion of ocean water, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets is now a larger annual contributor. There is uncertainty on how ice sheets will respond to further warming, however, reducing confidence in twenty-first century sea-level projections. In 2019, to address the uncertainty, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that sea-level rise from the 1950s levels would likely be within 0.61–1.10 m if warming exceeds 4°C by 2100. The IPCC acknowledged greater sea-level increases were possible through mechanisms not fully incorporated in models used in the assessment. In this perspective, we discuss challenges faced in projecting sea-level change and discuss why the IPCC's sea-level range for 2100 under strong warming is focused at the low end of possible outcomes. We argue outcomes above this range are far more probable than below it and discuss how decision makers may benefit from reframing IPCC's terminology to avoid unintentionally masking worst-case scenarios.