Development of a Dose-Response Model for SARS Coronavirus
Development of a Dose-Response Model for SARS Coronavirus
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01427.x
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Haas, Charles N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Watanabe, Toru;Bartrand, Timothy A.;Haas, Charles N.
为了建立SARS冠状病毒(SARS-CoV)的剂量-反应模型，用最大似然法对SARS-CoV易感转基因小鼠和小鼠肝炎病毒1型感染模型进行了β-Poisson模型和指数模型的拟合。指数模型(k=4.1x10~2)可以描述汇集数据集的剂量-反应关系。贝塔-泊松模型并没有在统计上显著提高匹配度。用指数模型计算了SARS冠状病毒的传染性，并与其他冠状病毒的传染性进行了比较。相应于10%和50%应答(疾病)的SARS-CoV剂量估计分别为43和280 pfu。据估计，其传染性与HCoV-229E相当，HCoV-229E是已知的人类感冒病原体，也与属于同一基因组的一些动物冠状病毒相似。并应用指数模型对2003年香港某公寓楼发生的SARS疫情的流行病学资料进行了分析。根据报告的病例数反向计算的SARS-CoV暴发期间公寓居民的估计剂量从16至160 pfu/人不等，具体取决于底数。这里建立的指数模型是目前唯一的SARS冠状病毒的剂量-反应模型，它将使我们能够了解SARS再次出现的可能性。
In order to develop a dose-response model for SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), the pooled data sets for infection of transgenic mice susceptible to SARS-CoV and infection of mice with murine hepatitis virus strain 1, which may be a clinically relevant model of SARS, were fit to beta-Poisson and exponential models with the maximum likelihood method. The exponential model (k = 4.1 x l02) could describe the dose-response relationship of the pooled data sets. The beta-Poisson model did not provide a statistically significant improvement in fit. With the exponential model, the infectivity of SARS-CoV was calculated and compared with those of other coronaviruses. The does of SARS-CoV corresponding to 10% and 50% responses (illness) were estimated at 43 and 280 PFU, respectively. Its estimated infectivity was comparable to that of HCoV-229E, known as an agent of human common cold, and also similar to those of some animal coronaviruses belonging to the same genetic group. Moreover, the exponential model was applied to the analysis of the epidemiological data of SARS outbreak that occurred at an apartment complex in Hong Kong in 2003. The estimated dose of SARS-CoV for apartment residents during the outbreak, which was back-calculated from the reported number of cases, ranged from 16 to 160 PFU/person, depending on the floor. The exponential model developed here is the sole dose-response model for SARS-CoV at the present and would enable us to understand the possibility for reemergence of SARS.