Housing Bubbles in Japan and the United States
Housing Bubbles in Japan and the United States
复制标题
日本和美国的房地产泡沫
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tsutomu Watanabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Shimizu;Tsutomu Watanabe
日本和美国先后经历了房地产泡沫和随后的泡沫破灭。本文对这两种气泡进行了比较，得到了以下结果：首先，将日本过去20年的数据应用于具有代表性的房价计算方法“重复销售法”和“享乐定价法”，发现泡沫破灭后价格触底的时间因两种方法的不同而不同。与使用享乐定价法的估算相比，用重复销售法估算的触底时间延迟了，共管公寓延迟了13个月，独户住宅延迟了3个月。这种延迟是由于建筑物的折旧效应没有得到适当的处理，通过重复销售的方法。在美国，S&P/Case-Shiller房价指数是具有代表性的房价指数，采用重复销售法。因此，估计触底回升的时间可能会推迟。随着人们对美国房地产市场何时触底越来越感兴趣，这种认知滞后的存在可能会导致不确定性的增加和经济复苏的延迟。其次，从时间序列数据来看住房需求与房价之间的关系，两者之间存在正相关关系。然而，在使用以县或州为单位的面板数据进行分析后，日本和美国的房屋需求和房价之间没有显着关系。从这个意义上说，很难用需求要素来解释是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的大小。这表明，人口结构对住房需求产生影响从而导致房价上涨的概念可能无法有效解释日本和美国的价格波动。第三，从房价和租金的联动来看，日本和美国的房价在泡沫形成和破灭的过程中，即使房价发生了显著变化，租金也几乎没有波动的现象。其背景是房东和租客之间形成了长期的契约关系，双方可以节省各种交易成本。此外，在日本，房屋的估算租金不使用市场价格进行评估，这是削弱联合运动的一个方面。在日本和美国，即使在泡沫时期房价上涨，租金也不会上涨，因此，将租金作为重要因素的消费价格也不会上涨。因此，它导致了向收紧信贷转变的延迟。泡沫破裂后，即使房价下跌，租金也不会随房价一起变动，因此出现了消费者物价不下降的现象。这是延迟转向放松货币政策的一个因素。租金价格是资产价格与商品和服务价格之间的一个重要变量。有必要提高测量它的精度。关键词：房地产泡沫，房价指数，住房需求，租金刚性
Japan and the United States have experienced the housing bubbles and subsequent collapses of the bubbles in succession. In this paper, these two bubbles are compared and the following findings are obtained. Firstly, upon applying twenty years of past data from Japan to the "repeat-sales method" and the "hedonic pricing method", which are representative methods for calculating house prices, it was found that the timing at which prices bottomed out after the collapses of the bubbles differed depending on the two methods. The timing for bottoming out as estimated by the repeat-sales method delayed when compared to the estimate using the hedonic pricing method, by 13 months for condominiums and by three months for single-family homes. This delay is caused by the depreciation effect of building not being processed appropriately by the repeat-sales method. In the United States, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are representative house prices indices, which use the repeat-sales method. Therefore, it is possible that the timing for bottoming out is estimated to be delayed. As there are increasing interests in the timing for bottoming out of the US housing market, there is a risk that the existence of such a lag in cognition causes the increase of uncertainty and the delay in economic recovery. Secondly, when looking at the relationship between the demand for houses and house prices based on the time-series data, there is a positive correlation between the two elements. However, upon conducting an analysis using the panel data, which is based on data in units of prefectures or states, there is no significant relationship between the demand for houses and house prices in both Japan and the United States. In this sense, it is hard to explain whether there is a bubble and the size of the bubble according to prefecture (state) using demand elements. This suggests that it is possible that the concept of demographics having an impact on the demand for houses, which thus caused the house prices to increase, is not effective in explaining the price fluctuations in neither Japan nor the United States. Thirdly, when looking at the co-movement between the house prices and rent, a phenomenon which the rent almost does not fluctuate at all even when the significant change of house prices change in the process of the formation and collapse of a bubble was confirmed for both Japan and the United States. Its background is that landlords and tenants have formed long-term contractual relationships so that both parties can save on various transactional costs. In addition, the imputed rent of one's home is not assessed using market prices in Japan, which is an aspect to weaken the co-movement. A lack of co-movement causes a phenomenon in Japan and the United States where consumer prices that include this rent as an important element do not increase since rent does not increase even if housing prices increase during a bubble period. Thus, it results in a delay towards a shift to tighten credits. Since rent prices do not move together with the house prices even after house prices decrease after the collapse of the bubble, a phenomenon which consumer prices do not decrease was observed. This served as a factor for the delay in a shift towards monetary relaxation. Rent prices are an important variable that serves as a node between asset prices and prices of goods and services. It is necessary to increase the accuracy with which it is measured. Key Words: Housing Bubble, House Price Index, House Demand, Rent Rigidity
评估土地价格信息的偏差：以日本为例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Journal of Property Investment ＆ Finance 24(2)
影响因子：
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作者：
東貞成;佐藤浩章;加藤雅信;浅見泰司;Chihiro Shimizu
通讯作者：
Chihiro Shimizu