Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China
Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01353.x
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Chang, Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
He, HS;Hao, ZQ;Chang, Y
目的林隙模型是评估气候变化对森林组成和结构影响的最有效工具之一，常用于预测气候变暖对生态系统的影响。林隙模型一般不考虑大尺度效应，如模拟森林生态系统的空间结构、干扰和种子传播，这些效应超出了模拟地块，在气候变化下很重要。在这项研究中，我们将大尺度的空间效应（空间配置的模拟森林生态系统，种子传播和火灾干扰）在模拟森林对气候变暖的反应。我们选择了中国的长白山自然保护区作为我们的研究区域。我们的目的是揭示在模拟森林对气候变暖的响应的空间效应，并通过将这些影响在长白自然保护区，东北China.Method长白自然保护区，我们使用了一个耦合的建模方法，链接一个空间明确的景观模型的间隙模型，使新的预测。在我们的方法中，个别物种对气候变暖的响应（建立）模拟使用的间隙模型（LINKAGES），已被利用以前在这一地区进行预测;和空间效应模拟使用景观模型（LANDIS），结合空间配置的模拟森林生态系统，种子传播和火灾干扰。我们使用了加拿大全球耦合模式（CGCM 2）对长白山地区的最新预测（年平均气温上升4.6摄氏度，降水量变化不大）。结果气候变暖对森林生态系统的主导作用在低海拔和高海拔地区明显，而在中海拔地区则不明显。这表明，森林生态系统的南部和北方范围内的分布将有最强的气候变暖的反应。在中海拔地区，环境控制对这些森林的动态产生了主导影响气候变暖情景下这些森林的物种轨迹波动与当前气候情景下的物种轨迹波动一致，这一事实表明，这些森林（例如云冷杉）及其对气候变暖的适应能力。预计在模拟所涵盖的300年期间内，该地区的树种不会因气候变暖而消失。无论是红松还是云冷杉是完全取代阔叶树种在模拟期间。即使是亚高山森林，在气候变暖的情景下，山桦树也没有灭绝，尽管它的出现大大减少。然而，减少的趋势特征红松，云杉和冷杉表明，在模拟超过300年，这些物种最终可能被阔叶树种取代。一个完整的森林过渡将需要比差距模型预测的时间长得多。
Aim Predictions of ecosystem responses to climate warming are often made using gap models, which are among the most effective tools for assessing the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure. Gap models do not generally account for broad-scale effects such as the spatial configuration of the simulated forest ecosystems, disturbance, and seed dispersal, which extend beyond the simulation plots and are important under changing climates. In this study we incorporate the broad-scale spatial effects (spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance) in simulating forest responses to climate warming. We chose the Changbai Natural Reserve in China as our study area. Our aim is to reveal the spatial effects in simulating forest responses to climate warming and make new predictions by incorporating these effects in the Changbai Natural Reserve.Location Changbai Natural Reserve, north-eastern China.Method We used a coupled modelling approach that links a gap model with a spatially explicit landscape model. In our approach, the responses (establishment) of individual species to climate warming are simulated using a gap model (LINKAGES) that has been utilized previously for making predictions in this region; and the spatial effects are simulated using a landscape model (LANDIS) that incorporates spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance. We used the recent predictions of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) for the Changbai Mountain area (4.6 degrees C average annual temperature increase and little precipitation change). For the area encompassed by the simulation, we examined four major ecosystems distributed continuously from low to high elevations along the northern slope: hardwood forest, mixed Korean pine hardwood forest, spruce-fir forest, and sub-alpine forest.Results The dominant effects of climate warming were evident on forest ecosystems in the low and high elevation areas, but not in the mid-elevation areas. This suggests that the forest ecosystems near the southern and northern ranges of their distributions will have the strongest response to climate warming. In the mid-elevation areas, environmental controls exerted the dominant influence on the dynamics of these forests (e.g. spruce-fir) and their resilience to climate warming was suggested by the fact that the fluctuations of species trajectories for these forests under the warming scenario paralleled those under the current climate scenario.Main conclusions With the spatial effects incorporated, the disappearance of tree species in this region due to the climate warming would not be expected within the 300-year period covered by the simulation. Neither Korean pine nor spruce-fir was completely replaced by broadleaf species during the simulation period. Even for the sub-alpine forest, mountain birch did not become extinct under the climate warming scenario, although its occurrence was greatly reduced. However, the decreasing trends characterizing Korean pine, spruce, and fir indicate that in simulations beyond 300 years these species could eventually be replaced by broadleaf tree species. A complete forest transition would take much longer than the time periods predicted by the gap models.