Quantifying the Sensitivity of Sea Level Change in Coastal Localities to the Geometry of Polar Ice Mass Flux
Quantifying the Sensitivity of Sea Level Change in Coastal Localities to the Geometry of Polar Ice Mass Flux
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-17-0465.1
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Latychev, Konstantin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mitrovica, Jerry X.;Hay, Carling C.;Latychev, Konstantin
世纪以来，人们已经知道，个别冰盖和冰川的融化会导致海平面变化的独特地理模式或指纹，最近的研究强调了这种变化对危险评估和融水来源推断的影响。这些研究使用简化的融化几何形状计算指纹，然而，更普遍的治疗将是有利的，当评估或预测海平面的危险，面对快速演变的模式的冰质量通量。在本文中，通常的指纹方法被倒置，以计算特定网站的敏感性内核的全球数据库的沿海地区。这些内核提供了一个映射之间的地理变化的质量通量在每个冰盖和冰川和相关的静态海平面变化在一个给定的网站。突出显示了与格陵兰岛、南极洲和阿拉斯加-育空-不列颠哥伦比亚省冰川系统融化有关的一部分地点的核。例如，后者揭示了美国西海岸沿着正在进行和未来的海平面变化对该地区冰质量通量几何形状的敏感性。最后，这些内核的实际效用说明了计算海平面预测在一套网站与格陵兰冰质量的年度变化，自2003年以来，卫星重力测量的约束。
It has been known for over a century that the melting of individual ice sheets and glaciers drives distinct geographic patterns, or fingerprints, of sea level change, and recent studies have highlighted the implications of this variability for hazard assessment and inferences of meltwater sources. These studies have computed fingerprints using simplified melt geometries; however, a more generalized treatment would be advantageous when assessing or projecting sea level hazards in the face of quickly evolving patterns of ice mass flux. In this paper the usual fingerprint approach is inverted to compute site-specific sensitivity kernels for a global database of coastal localities. These kernels provide a mapping between geographically variable mass flux across each ice sheet and glacier and the associated static sea level change at a given site. Kernels are highlighted for a subset of sites associated with melting from Greenland, Antarctica, and the Alaska-Yukon-British Columbia glacier system. The latter, for example, reveals an underappreciated sensitivity of ongoing and future sea level change along the U.S. West Coast to the geometry of ice mass flux in the region. Finally, the practical utility of these kernels is illustrated by computing sea level predictions at a suite of sites associated with annual variability in Greenland ice mass since 2003 constrained by satellite gravity measurements.