Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China
Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268813002938
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Wang, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, T.;Yang, Z.;Wang, M.
手足口病（HFMD）正在成为中国南方广州市常见的空气传播和接触传播疾病之一，导致公共卫生当局对其发病率上升感到担忧。本研究旨在探讨2009-2012年广州市手足口病发病与天气模式的关系，为广州市手足口病的公共卫生防控提供参考。采用负二项多变量回归分析方法研究气象变量与手足口病的关系。在研究期间，共报告了166770例手足口病确诊病例，其中11例死亡，死亡率为0.66/10000。2009 - 2012年的年发病率分别为132.44、311.40、402.76和468.59/10万。温度每升高1 ℃，每周手足口病病例数增加9.38%（95%CI 8.17-10.51），而大气压力每升高1 hPa，病例数减少6.80%（95%CI-6.99至-6.65），具有相反的效果。类似地，相对湿度上升1%对应于每周手足口病病例数增加0.67%或0.51%，风速上升1 m/h对应于每周手足口病病例数增加4.01%或2.65%，大风天数增加1天对应于每周手足口病病例数增加24.73%或25.87%。这取决于模型中考虑的变量。结果表明，广州市手足口病的流行特点是发病率高，病死率低。气象因素对手足口病的发生和传播有重要影响。
Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of HFMD in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2009-2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. During the study period, a total of 166770 HFMD-confirmed cases were reported, of which 11 died, yielding a fatality rate of 0.66/10000. Annual incidence rates from 2009 to 2012 were 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59/100000 respectively. Each 1 degrees C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.38% (95% CI 8.17-10.51) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 6.80% (95% CI -6.99 to -6.65), having an opposite effect. Similarly, a 1% rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 0.67% or 0.51%, a 1m/h rise in wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 4.01% or 2.65%, and a 1 day addition in the number of windy days corresponded to an increase of 24.73% or 25.87%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. Our findings revealed that the epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD.