Vested Interest and Biased Price Estimates: Evidence from an Auction Market
Vested Interest and Biased Price Estimates: Evidence from an Auction Market
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既得利益和有偏差的价格估计：来自拍卖市场的证据
DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00803.x
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Michael J. Moses
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Mei;Michael J. Moses
本研究使用一组来自艺术品拍卖的新数据来检验拍卖商预售价格估计与艺术品长期表现之间的关系。我们发现，在长达30年的时间里，对昂贵画作的价格估计有一致的上升偏向。在购买时的高估计与随后的不利异常回报相关。此外，随着时间的推移，对个别画作的估计误差往往会持续存在。这些结果与以下观点一致，即拍卖房价预估受到代理机构问题的影响，一些投资者轻信。版权所有，2005年由美国金融协会。
This study employs a new data set from art auctions to examine the relationship between auctioneer presale price estimates and the long-term performance of artworks. We find that the price estimates for expensive paintings have a consistent upward bias over a long period of 30 years. High estimates at the time of purchase are associated with adverse subsequent abnormal returns. Moreover, the estimation error for individual paintings tends to persist over time. These results are consistent with the view that auction house price estimates are affected by agency problems and that some investors are credulous. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.