The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European circulation regimes on the daily to interannual variability of winter precipitation in Israel
The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European circulation regimes on the daily to interannual variability of winter precipitation in Israel
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.2383
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发表时间：
2012-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Black
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Black
中东的干旱气候意味着从几天到几年的所有时间尺度的降雨量变化都会对该地区的人们产生巨大影响。如果我们要解释该地区气候的模型模拟并对未来气候如何变化做出有意义的预测，了解这种变化至关重要。这项研究调查了有利于以色列降雨的欧洲天气状况、地中海风暴路径的年际变化以及北大西洋涛动 (NAO) 等大规模变化模式之间的联系。结果表明，特定的欧洲环流状况有利于以色列的降雨，并且当 NAO 处于正位相时，这些状况发生的频率更高。这反映在 NAO 冬季积极期间，中东地区降雨总量非常高的可能性增加。相比之下，与干燥天气可能性增加相关的环流状况与 NAO 负面条件无关。这种非线性以及已知的 NAO 遥相关缺乏平稳性解释了 NAO 指数与约旦和以色列降水之间的弱相关性。版权所有 © 2011 英国皇家气象学会
The arid climate of the Middle East means that variations in rainfall on all timescales from days to years have enormous impact on the people who live in the region. Understanding this variability is crucial if we are to interpret model simulations of the region's climate and make meaningful predictions of how the climate may change in the future. This study investigates the links between the European synoptic regimes that favour rainfall in Israel, interannual variability in the Mediterranean storm track, and large‐scale modes of variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It is shown that particular European circulation regimes favour rainfall in Israel, and that these regimes occur more frequently when the NAO is in its positive phase. This is reflected by increased likelihood of very high rainfall totals in the Middle East during NAO positive winters. In contrast, the circulation regimes associated with an increased probability of dry weather are not associated with NAO negative conditions. This non‐linearity, along with the known lack of stationarity in NAO teleconnections explains the weak correlation between the NAO index and precipitation in the Jordan and Israel. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society