The “Missing Girls” of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy
The “Missing Girls” of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy
复制标题
DOI：
10.3368/jhr.45.1.87
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Ebenstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Ebenstein
中国的高男女比例引起了研究人员的关注（Sen，1990年; Yi等人，1993年），最近的增长使全世界的决策者感到震惊。本文对中国人口普查数据进行了分析，指出“女孩失踪”现象与独生子女政策的实施有因果关系。在生育控制更严格的国家，生育率较低，性别比例较高，性别比例总体上升的原因是第一胎和第二胎性别选择的普遍性增加。通过利用区域和时间的变化，罚款征收未经授权的生育，我发现，较高的罚款制度阻碍生育，但与较高的男女比例。
High ratios of males to females in China have concerned researchers (Sen 1990, Yi et al. 1993) and the recent increase has alarmed policymakers worldwide. This paper presents an analysis of China’s census data that indicates that the “missing girls” phenomenon is causally linked to enforcement of the One Child Policy. Fertility is lower and sex ratios are higher among those under stricter fertility control, and the overall increase in the sex ratio is driven by an increase in the prevalence of sex selection among first and second births. By exploiting regional and temporal variation in fines levied for unauthorized births, I find that higher fine regimes discourage fertility, but are associated with higher ratios of males to females.