Understanding the Revenue Potential of Tax Compliance Investment
Understanding the Revenue Potential of Tax Compliance Investment
复制标题
了解税务合规投资的收入潜力
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Summers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Natasha Sarin;L. Summers
在2020年7月的一份报告中，国会预算办公室估计，对国税局的适度投资将在十年内产生600亿至1000亿美元的额外收入。这在性质上是正确的。但从数量上看，收入潜力比国会预算办公室报告显示的要大得多。我们强调了CBO低估的五个原因：1）预期的IRS投资规模不大，甚至远远不足以使IRS预算恢复到2011年的水平; 2）CBO考虑的干预范围有限，完全排除了信息报告和技术进步的进展; 3）估计假设投资的边际增长迅速递减; 4）估计忽略了加强执法对纳税人决策的影响; 5）使用10年窗口意味着排除了加强执法的长期利益。我们讨论了这些问题，提出了另一种计算方法，并得出结论认为，将税收合规努力恢复到历史水平的承诺可能会在未来十年产生超过1万亿美元的收入。
In a July 2020 report, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that modest investments in the IRS would generate somewhere between $60 and $100 billion in additional revenue over a decade. This is qualitatively correct. But quantitatively, the revenue potential is much more significant than the CBO report suggests. We highlight five reasons for the CBO’s underestimation: 1) the scale of the investment in the IRS contemplated is modest and far short of sufficient even to return the IRS budget to 2011 levels; 2) the CBO contemplates a limited range of interventions, excluding entirely progress on information reporting and technological advancements; 3) the estimates assume rapidly diminishing returns to marginal increases in investment; 4) the estimates leave out the effect of increased enforcement on taxpayer decision-making; and 5) the use of the 10-year window means that the long-run benefits of increased enforcement are excluded. We discuss these issues, present an alternative calculation, and conclude that a commitment to restoring tax compliance efforts to historical levels could generate over $1 trillion in the next decade.