Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality
Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0847-8
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Horowitz, Larry W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fang, Yuanyuan;Mauzerall, Denise L.;Horowitz, Larry W.
气候变化调节了地表细颗粒物(PM2.5)和臭氧(O-3)的浓度，间接影响了可归因于空气污染的过早死亡。我们估计了21世纪气候变化引起的地表O-3和PM2.5变化导致的全球过早死亡率和寿命损失年数(YLL)的变化。我们使用一个全球化学-气候耦合模式来模拟当前和未来的气候以及气候变化对空气质量的影响。流行病学浓度-反应关系被用来估计由此导致的过早死亡率和YLL的变化。气候变化对空气质量的影响是孤立的，通过保持空气污染物排放量不变，同时允许气候根据温室气体排放的适度预测在21世纪演变(A1B情景)。由此导致的21世纪气候变化本身就导致了全球PM2.5模拟浓度的增加，并导致人口稠密(偏远)地区的O-3浓度更高(更低)。与长期暴露于PM2.5有关的全球年度过早死亡率增加了约10万人(95%可信区间，为66-13万)，相应的延年益寿增加了近90万年(95%可信区间，576-112.8万)。与慢性O-3接触有关的呼吸系统疾病导致的年过早死亡率增加了+6300人(95%可信区间，1600-10400人)。这一气候惩罚表明，未来需要加强排放控制，以满足当前的空气质量标准，并避免与气候变化导致人口稠密地区空气质量恶化相关的更高的健康风险。
Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O-3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O-3 and PM2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O-3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66-130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576-1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O-3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600-10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.