Evaluation of urban water resource security under urban expansion using a system dynamics model
Evaluation of urban water resource security under urban expansion using a system dynamics model
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城市扩张下城市水资源安全的系统动力学模型评价
DOI：
10.2166/ws.2015.092
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wang Ling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang Yu-Ting;Liu Hai-Long;Bao An-Ming;Chen Xi;Wang Ling
由于经济的快速发展和城市化，水资源短缺已成为中国干旱区一个严重的问题。为探讨城市水资源安全问题，分析了不同发展情景下的城市水资源供需压力和城市扩张指数。以乌鲁木齐市作为干旱区典型内陆城市，在2011 - 2030年发展情景下，构建了乌鲁木齐市水资源安全的系统动力学模型。结果表明：未来乌鲁木齐市城市扩张对水资源安全的影响较大。如果城市扩张在人口、经济增长和用水效率方面保持不变，预计水资源将变得越来越稀缺。为了寻找水资源可持续利用的方法，基于敏感变量建立了4种城市扩张情景。通过不同情景下的用水量比较，得出城市水资源安全协调方案是乌鲁木齐市发展的最佳选择。如果未来城市扩张对城市水资源安全的影响有所缓解，则主要参数必须达到新的用水标准。减少污水和提高废水回用比例对于缓解水资源短缺的压力也非常重要。研究结果可为干旱区水资源配置和城市规划提供参考。
Because of rapid economic development and urbanization, water shortage has become a serious problem in the arid region of China. To investigate urban water resource security, the supply demand pressure of water resources and the urban expansion index were analyzed under different developing scenarios in this paper. Based on the economic data of Urumqi, a typical inland city in the arid area, under the present development scenario from 2011 to 2030, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the water resource security. The results show that there will be great influence of urban expansion on water resource security in Urumqi in the future. Water resources are projected to become increasingly scarce if the urban expansion is left unchanged in terms of population, economic growth and water-use efficiency. To find a sustainable method for water resource use, four scenarios of urban expansion were set up based on the sensitive variables. Based on comparison of water consumption under the different scenarios, the harmonize scheme for urban water resource security is the best choice for the development of Urumqi. If the impact of urban expansion on urban water resource security alleviates in the future, the main parameters would have to reach a new standard of water use. Reducing the sewage and increasing the reuse proportion of wastewater are also very important for relieving the stress of water shortage. This research can serve as a reference for water resource allocation and urban planning in arid areas.