Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change in western China
Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change in western China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli3694.1
复制
发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Li Peiji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qin Dahe;Liu Shiyin;Li Peiji
研究了1951年至1997年近47年来中国西部积雪的地理分布和时空变化。所使用的数据包括扫描多通道微波辐射计6天积雪深度图，美国国家海洋和大气局每周积雪范围图，以及中国西部106个气象站的日积雪深度和积雪天数。为了更好地了解青藏高原积雪的空间格局和变异性，对SMMR数据集进行了经验正交函数分析。通过多元线性回归分析，揭示了积雪年际变化与雪季温度和降水量的关系。此外，自回归移动平均模型被拟合到雪和气候时间序列，以检验它们的长期趋势。结果表明，在20世纪80年代和90年代的大变暖期间，中国西部并没有出现积雪持续减少的现象。值得注意的是，在雪盖季节，温度和降水量之间没有确定的相关性。然而，积雪的年际波动对降雪和雪季温度都有响应。降雪和雪季温度的线性变化约占总降雪量变化的一半到三分之二。中国西部积雪的长期变化特征是大的年际变化叠加小的增加趋势。中国西部积雪的增加趋势与降雪量的增加相一致，但与区域变暖的趋势相矛盾。此外，青藏高原积雪的诸多制约因素迫使作者对布兰福德的假说提出了挑战。
A study is presented of the geographical distribution and spatial and temporal variabilities of the western China snow cover in the past 47 yr between 1951 and 1997. The data used consist of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) 6-day snow-depth charts, NOAA weekly snow extent charts, and the daily snow depth and number of snow cover days from 106 selected meteorological stations across western China. Empirical orthogonal function was performed on the SMMR dataset to better understand the spatial pattern and variability of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) snow cover. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to show the association of interannual variations between snow cover and snow season temperature as well as precipitation. Further, the autoregressive moving average model was fitted to the snow and climate time series to test for their long-term trends. Results show that western China did not experience a continual decrease in snow cover during the great warming period of the 1980s and 1990s. It is of interest to note that no correlation was identified between temperature and precipitation in the snow cover season. However, year-to-year fluctuation of snow cover responds to both snowfall and snow season temperature. About one-half to two-thirds of the total variance in snow cover is explained by the linear variations of snowfall and snow season temperature. The long-term variability of western China snow cover is characterized by a large interannual variation superimposed on a small increase trend. The positive trend of the western China snow cover is consistent with increasing snowfall, but is in contradiction to regional warming. In addition, many constraints of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) snow cover force the author's challenge of Blanford's hypothesis.