How renewables will change electricity markets in the next five years
How renewables will change electricity markets in the next five years
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.042
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发表时间：
2012-09
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
R. Schleicher-Tappeser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Schleicher-Tappeser
光伏（PV）电池、陆上风力涡轮机、互联网技术和存储技术有可能在未来几年从根本上改变电力市场。光伏电池是最具颠覆性的能源技术，因为它们允许各种规模的消费者自己发电电力市场的新参与者可以开始以一种新的自下而上的控制逻辑运行。无补贴的光伏市场可能在2013年开始起飞，推动光伏发电的大幅增长，因为光伏发电比商业消费者的电网或柴油备用电力更便宜。管理负荷并实现电力消耗与依赖天气的电力生产之间的良好匹配可能会成为一个关键问题。这种消费-生产平衡可能会引发能源管理技术的大规模创新和投资，涉及不同类型的存储和控制。消费者的自主性和灵活性不断提高，挑战了传统电力供应的自上而下的控制逻辑，并推动了一个更加分散和多层的系统。这一转变的速度和顺利程度在很大程度上取决于监管框架的适应速度和市场参与者开发适当商业模式的能力。本文讨论了利益冲突;障碍和驱动因素;机会;以及这一观点的陷阱。
Photovoltaic (PV) cells, onshore wind turbines, internet technologies, and storage technologies have the potential to fundamentally change electricity markets in the years ahead. Photovoltaic cells are the most disruptive energy technology as they allow consumers of all sizes to produce power by themselves—new actors in the power market can begin operating with a new bottom-up control logic. Unsubsidised PV markets may start to take off in 2013, fuelling substantial growth where PV power is getting cheaper than grid or diesel backup electricity for commercial consumers. Managing loads and achieving a good match between power consumption and weather-dependent power production will likely become a key issue. This consumption—production balance may trigger massive innovation and investment in energy management technologies involving different kinds of storage and controls. Increasing autonomy and flexibility of consumers challenges the top-down control logic of traditional power supply and pushes for a more decentralised and multi-layered system. How rapidly and smoothly this transformation occurs depends to a large extent on the adaptation speed of the regulatory framework and on the ability of market players to develop appropriate business models. The paper discusses conflicts of interest; hurdles and drivers; opportunities; and traps for this perspective.