France's heat health watch warning system
France's heat health watch warning system
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-005-0003-x
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Empereur-Bissonnet, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pascal, M;Laaidi, K;Empereur-Bissonnet, P
2003年，法国开发了一个热健康监测预警系统，以预测可能导致死亡率大幅上升的热浪。该系统是在对14个试点城市的死亡率和气象数据进行回顾性分析的基础上开发的。对与超额死亡率有关的几个气象指标进行了测试。利用敏感度和特异度计算方法选择气象指标和临界值。选择了一个混合最低和最高温度的指标。设定临界值是为了预测导致最小城市死亡率超过100%以及巴黎、里昂、马赛和里尔死亡率超过50%的事件。该系统使用最低和最高温度分布的第98百分位数在全国范围内推广。利用这一监测预警系统制定了一项国家行动计划。2004年6月1日在全国范围内启动。该系统意味着法国气象局、国家卫生监督研究所和卫生部之间的密切合作。该系统得到一系列预防措施的支持，以防止热浪对卫生造成影响。
In 2003, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in France to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. The system was developed on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data in fourteen pilot cities. Several meteorological indicators were tested in relation to levels of excess mortality. Computations of sensibility and specificity were used to choose the meteorological indicators and the cut-offs. An indicator that mixes minimum and maximum temperatures was chosen. The cut-offs were set in order to anticipate events resulting in an excess mortality above 100% in the smallest cities and above 50% in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Lille. The system was extended nationwide using the 98th percentile of the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures. A national action plan was set up, using this watch warning system. It was activated on 1st June 2004 on a national scale. The system implies a close cooperation between the French Weather Bureau (Meteo France), the National Institute of Health Surveillance (InVS) and the Ministry of Health. The system is supported by a panel of preventive actions, to prevent the sanitary impact of heat waves.