Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' rivers
Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' rivers
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DOI：
10.1029/2007jd008525
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发表时间：
2007-12-28
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adam, Jennifer C.;Haddeland, Ingjerd;Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
[1] 自 20 世纪 30 年代以来，从欧亚大陆最大的河流流入北冰洋的综合流量一直在增加。对于其中许多河流来说，年流量的增加伴随着季节性的变化（例如，春季融雪径流提前）。年度和季节性径流的这些变化可能是由于气候变化的直接影响（例如降水量增加或积雪和消融模式的变化）、气候变化的间接影响（例如永久冻土的变化）或人类影响（例如水库河流径流的储存和释放）。我们开发并描述了一种方法来估计人工水库对 1937 年至 1998 年间年度和季节性水流长期变化的潜在贡献。水库对下游流量的影响是使用与勒拿河、叶尼塞河和鄂毕河流域的可变入渗能力 (VIC) 地表水文模型离线耦合的水库演进模型来模拟的。还显示了水库对流域平均蒸发量的影响。我们对季节性和年度径流的长期（>= 30 年）时间序列进行趋势分析，并隔离水库的影响。尽管水库对勒拿河流域、叶尼塞河流域和鄂毕河流域的年流量趋势影响不大，但我们得出的结论是，它们对观察到的许多季节性变化负有责任。对于勒拿河，水库分别占观测到的冬季和春季趋势的 80% 和 30%。对于叶尼塞河，水库分别占观测到的冬季、春季和夏末至初秋趋势的 100%、40% 和 60% 至 100%。对于 Ob' 来说，水库可能占 1 月至 3 月观察到的趋势的 70% 以上。这项研究的结果是勒拿河、叶尼塞河和鄂毕河流域出口处的一组重建水流，可用于后续研究，以提高对气候变化对欧亚北极径流产生影响的理解。
[1] Since the 1930s, combined streamflow from the largest Eurasian rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing. For many of these rivers, an increase in annual streamflow volume has been accompanied by a shift in seasonality (e. g., earlier snowmelt runoff in the spring). These changes in annual and seasonal streamflow may be due to direct effects of climate change (e. g., increased precipitation, or changes in snow accumulation and ablation patterns), indirect effects of climate change (e. g., changes in permafrost), or human effects (e. g., storage and release of river runoff in reservoirs). We develop and describe a method to estimate the potential contributions of artificial reservoirs to long-term changes in annual and seasonal streamflow between 1937 and 1998. Reservoir effects on downstream flow are simulated using a reservoir routing model coupled off- line to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model for the Lena, Yenisei and Ob' river basins. The effects of reservoirs on basin average evaporation are also represented. We perform trend analysis on long-term (>= 30 years) time series of seasonal and annual streamflow and isolate the effects of reservoirs. Although reservoirs have had little effect on trends in annual discharge from the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins, we conclude that they are responsible for many of the seasonal changes that have been observed. For the Lena, reservoirs account for up to 80% and 30% of the observed winter and spring trends, respectively. For the Yenisei, reservoirs account for up to 100%, 40%, and 60% to 100% of the observed winter, spring, and late summer to early fall trends, respectively. For the Ob', reservoirs may account for more than 70% of the observed trends during the months of January to March. A result of this study is a set of reconstructed streamflow at the outlets of the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins which can be used in subsequent studies to improve the understanding of climate change effects on runoff generation in the Eurasian Arctic.