Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-Cyclical?
Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-Cyclical?
复制标题
经合组织对周期的财政政策反应：顺周期还是反周期？
DOI：
10.1787/5kmft7pthb27-en
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Balázs Égert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Balázs Égert
本文分析了经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家财政政策对经济周期的反应。结果表明，虽然政府的总体收支平衡在过去是反周期的，而且在经济衰退时期比在经济上升时期更是如此，但自由裁量的财政政策平均而言是中性的。然而，自由裁量的财政政策似乎以非线性方式对周期作出反应：公共债务高和政府赤字高的国家的财政政策往往是助长周期性波动的，而公共债务低和有盈余的国家更有可能采取反周期性的财政政策。本文还发现，资产价格对政府收支平衡有重大影响。
This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However, discretionary fiscal policy appears to react to the cycle in a non-linear fashion: fiscal policy in countries with high public debt and high government deficits tends to be pro-cyclical, while countries that have low public debt and that have surpluses are more likely to conduct a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The paper also finds that asset prices have a significant impact on government balances.