Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: Evaluation techniques at different stages of market and technical maturity
Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: Evaluation techniques at different stages of market and technical maturity
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DOI：
10.1111/jiec.12954
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Sleep, Sylvia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bergerson, Joule A.;Brandt, Adam;Sleep, Sylvia
生命周期评估(LCA)分析员越来越多地被要求在技术开发的最早阶段进行基于生命周期的系统级别分析。虽然早期评估提供了影响设计并最终影响环境性能的最大机会，但它是可用数据最少、不确定性最大、用于应对这些挑战的分析工具匮乏的阶段。虽然对新兴技术进行LCA的基本方法类似于对现有技术进行LCA，但新兴技术带来了额外的挑战。在这篇文章中，我们提出了一组广泛的市场和技术特征，这些特征通常会影响新兴技术的LCA，并确定研究人员必须解决的问题，以说明他们正在研究的系统的最重要方面。该文件提出：(A)确定与特定研究最相关和最独特的具体技术特征和动态市场背景的指导方针；(B)由于这些条件而独一无二的早期评估所面临的挑战的概述；(C)研究人员在进行此类研究时应自问的问题；以及(D)交通部门的说明性例子，以说明在进行新兴技术的长期评估时应考虑的因素。这篇论文的目的是作为一个组织平台，综合现有的方法、程序和见解，并指导研究人员、分析师和技术开发人员更好地认识到关键的研究设计要素，并管理对研究结果的预期。
Life cycle assessment (LCA) analysts are increasingly being asked to conduct life cycle-based systems level analysis at the earliest stages of technology development. While early assessments provide the greatest opportunity to influence design and ultimately environmental performance, it is the stage with the least available data, greatest uncertainty, and a paucity of analytic tools for addressing these challenges. While the fundamental approach to conducting an LCA of emerging technologies is akin to that of LCA of existing technologies, emerging technologies pose additional challenges. In this paper, we present a broad set of market and technology characteristics that typically influence an LCA of emerging technologies and identify questions that researchers must address to account for the most important aspects of the systems they are studying. The paper presents: (a) guidance to identify the specific technology characteristics and dynamic market context that are most relevant and unique to a particular study, (b) an overview of the challenges faced by early stage assessments that are unique because of these conditions, (c) questions that researchers should ask themselves for such a study to be conducted, and (d) illustrative examples from the transportation sector to demonstrate the factors to consider when conducting LCAs of emerging technologies. The paper is intended to be used as an organizing platform to synthesize existing methods, procedures and insights and guide researchers, analysts and technology developer to better recognize key study design elements and to manage expectations of study outcomes.