Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK: a pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting
Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK: a pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abcbba
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Sun, Ting
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Wan Ting Katty;Charlton-Perez, Andrew;Sun, Ting
英国（英国）（英国）的死亡率提高，既温暖又寒冷。在这项研究中，我们通过量化大型天气状况和概要量表天气模式对温度相关的途径对温度相关死亡率风险的预测途径和中等范围预测的途径对整个英国12个地区与温度相关的多余死亡的影响。我们发现NAO-CORGIME在所有地区的冬季过剩死亡率高。在夏季，我们注意到，寒冷导致累积过剩的死亡率与中度炎热的日子相当，寒冷的日子为夏季的11％至100％（北爱尔兰），累积累积过剩死亡率最高。但是，高温接触通常与死亡率的立即但短暂的升高有关，而寒冷天气的影响往往会更延迟并在更长的时间内散布。斯堪的纳维亚高分子的天气模式最有可能与夏季炎热的极端变化相关，而在夏季很少发生的强大Zonal喷气流天气模式很可能与夏季的寒冷有关。
Non-optimal temperatures, both warm and cold, are associated with enhanced mortality in the United Kingdom (UK). In this study we demonstrate a pathway to sub-seasonal and medium range forecasting of temperature-related mortality risk by quantifying the impact of large-scale weather regimes and synoptic scale weather patterns on temperature-associated excess deaths in 12 regions across the UK. We find a clear dominance of the NAO- regime in leading to high wintertime excess mortality across all regions. In summer, we note that cold spells lead to comparable cumulative excess mortality as moderate hot days, with cold days accounting for 11 (London) to 100% (Northern Ireland) of the summer days with the highest 5% cumulative excess mortality. However, exposure to high temperatures is typically associated with an immediate but short lived spike in mortality, while the impact of cold weather tends to be more delayed and spread out over a longer period. Weather patterns with a Scandinavian high component are most likely to be associated with summer hot extremes, while a strong zonal jet stream weather pattern which rarely occurs in summer is most likely to be associated with summer cold spells.