Evaluating slope stability uncertainty using coupled Markov chain
Evaluating slope stability uncertainty using coupled Markov chain
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DOI：
10.1016/j.compgeo.2015.11.021
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Dianqing Li;X. Qi;Z. Cao;Xiao-Song Tang;K. Phoon;Chuangbing Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dianqing Li;X. Qi;Z. Cao;Xiao-Song Tang;K. Phoon;Chuangbing Zhou
地质不确定性表现为一个土层嵌入另一个土层，或在一个更均匀的土体中包含不同土壤类型的小块。地质不确定性引起的边坡安全系数（FS）和破坏概率（Pf）的不确定性，以往研究得不多。本文提出了一种方法来评估的不确定性FS和Pf的边坡存在的地质不确定性，使用钻孔数据。地质不确定性是由一个有效的耦合马尔可夫链（CMC）模型模拟。在此基础上，对模拟的非均质土体进行了边坡稳定性分析。研究了钻孔布置方案对FS和Pf不确定度评定的影响。结果表明，在边坡影响范围内钻孔是精确评价FS统计量和PF的关键，随着钻孔数目的增加，FS的平均值将收敛到正确的答案。
Geological uncertainty appears in the form of one soil layer embedded in another or the inclusion of pockets of different soil type within a more uniform soil mass. Uncertainty in factor of safety (FS) and probability of failure (Pf) of slope induced by the geological uncertainty is not well studied in the past. This paper presents one approach to evaluate the uncertainty in FS and Pf of slope in the presence of geological uncertainty using borehole data. The geological uncertainty is simulated by an efficient coupled Markov chain (CMC) model. Slope stability analysis is then conducted based on the simulated heterogeneous soils. Effect of borehole layout schemes on uncertainty evaluation of FS and Pf is investigated. The results show that borehole within influence zone of the slope is essential for a precise evaluation of FS statistics and Pf. The mean of FS will converge to the correct answer as the borehole number increases.