The Gravity of China's African Export Promise
The Gravity of China's African Export Promise
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/twec.12229
复制
发表时间：
2014-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Johnston;S. Morgan;Yuesheng Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Johnston;S. Morgan;Yuesheng Wang
type="main" xml:id="twec12229-abs-0001"> 非洲最大的贸易伙伴中国因用制成品交换资源而受到批评，现已承诺增加进口并优化对非贸易结构。我们利用 1995 年至 2009 年中国进口的引力模型，探索了这一承诺的潜在动力，并独特地考虑了市场经济认可和台湾认可。前者与进口增加有关，而后者的影响则不明确且统计上不显着。三种符合增长路径的经济地理类型的预测进口与实际进口的比较——资源丰富；地处内陆且资源匮乏；沿海和资源贫乏——在非洲出口潜力的抽象框架中阐述了中国的进口趋势。我们发现，大多数资源匮乏国家的进口量不仅“不足”。我们还发现，当前的贸易政策最不适用于这些相对贫困的出口商对华贸易。如果后者要在非洲区域产业转型中发挥比沿海和资源贫乏国家在亚洲和拉丁美洲区域经济转型中更广泛的催化作用，那么中非贸易和投资政策可能需要更多思考。
type="main" xml:id="twec12229-abs-0001"> Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth-path-aligned economic geography typologies – resource-rich; landlocked and resource-poor; coastal and resource-poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource-poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource-poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.