Changes in level of household car ownership: the role of life events and spatial context
Changes in level of household car ownership: the role of life events and spatial context
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DOI：
10.1007/s11116-015-9589-y
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Melia, Steve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clark, Ben;Chatterjee, Kiron;Melia, Steve
最近对家庭汽车拥有量的纵向研究考察了与汽车拥有量增加和减少相关的因素。这个面板数据分析的贡献是确定不同类型的汽车拥有水平变化的预测因素（零到一辆汽车，一到两辆汽车，反之亦然），并证明这些是完全不同的性质。该研究开发了一个大规模的数据集（n = 19，334），借鉴了英国家庭纵向研究（UKHLS）的前两波（2009-2011）。这使得生成一套全面的生活事件和空间背景变量。家庭组成（到达和离开的人）和驾驶执照的变化是汽车拥有量变化的最强预测因素，其次是就业状况和收入变化。研究发现，家庭在收入减少时更有可能放弃汽车，而不是在收入增加时购买汽车。这可能与当时的经济衰退有关。生孩子的影响因汽车拥有状况而异，它增加了非车主获得汽车的可能性，并增加了两个车主放弃汽车的可能性。对空间环境的敏感性表现为获得公共交通预测的非汽车拥有家庭获得汽车的概率较高，而拥有一辆汽车的家庭放弃汽车的概率较低。虽然以前的小组研究不得不依赖于相对较小的样本，但UKHLS的大规模性质为决定不同汽车拥有水平变化的因素提供了强有力的综合证据。
Recent longitudinal studies of household car ownership have examined factors associated with increases and decreases in car ownership level. The contribution of this panel data analysis is to identify the predictors of different types of car ownership level change (zero to one car, one to two cars and vice versa) and demonstrate that these are quite different in nature. The study develops a large scale data set (n = 19,334), drawing on the first two waves (2009-2011) of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS). This has enabled the generation of a comprehensive set of life event and spatial context variables. Changes to composition of households (people arriving and leaving) and to driving licence availability are the strongest predictors of car ownership level changes, followed by employment status and income changes. Households were found to be more likely to relinquish cars in association with an income reduction than they were to acquire cars in association with an income gain. This may be attributed to the economic recession of the time. The effect of having children differs according to car ownership state with it increasing the probability of acquiring a car for non-car owners and increasing the probability of relinquishing a car for two car owners. Sensitivity to spatial context is demonstrated by poorer access to public transport predicting higher probability of a non-car owning household acquiring a car and lower probability of a one-car owning household relinquishing a car. While previous panel studies have had to rely on comparatively small samples, the large scale nature of the UKHLS has provided robust and comprehensive evidence of the factors that determine different car ownership level changes.