Climate change: potential impacts on frost–thaw conditions and seasonal load restriction timing for low-volume roadways
Climate change: potential impacts on frost–thaw conditions and seasonal load restriction timing for low-volume roadways
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DOI：
10.1080/14680629.2017.1302355
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
J. Daniel;J. Jacobs;H. Miller;A. Stoner;J. Crowley;Masoumeh Khalkhali;Ashley Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Daniel;J. Jacobs;H. Miller;A. Stoner;J. Crowley;Masoumeh Khalkhali;Ashley Thomas
低通行量道路占世界各地道路的主要部分。其中许多位于季节性霜冻地区，机构根据冻融条件造成的道路承载能力的季节性波动来增加和减少允许重量限制。随着气候变化导致气温变化，冬季冰冻和春季解冻期的时间和持续时间可能会发生变化，可能对当地工业和经济造成重大影响。在这项研究中，使用了 19 个气候模型的集合来预测未来的温度变化以及这些变化对新英格兰五个仪表化路面站点的霜冻深度和季节性负荷变化时间的影响。该研究表明，预计到本世纪末将出现长达两周的变化，并且在整个研究区域观察到适度的变化，这表明当地条件对于未来的评估非常重要，具体取决于所需的准确性水平。从1970年到1999年，研究地区的平均冰冻季节持续9到13周。到 2000 年至 2029 年，冻结期比基线持续时间缩短约 10 天（减少 10-20%）。到本世纪末，根据 RCP 4.5，冻结期通常会缩短 4 周或减少 30-40%。然而，RCP 8.5 结果表明，5 个地点中有 4 个在 2060 年至 2089 年至少 6 个冬季期间不会出现冰冻期。
Low-volume roads constitute a major percentage of roadways around the world. Many of these are located in seasonal frost areas where agencies increase and decrease the allowable weight limits based on seasonal fluctuations in the load carrying capacity of the roadway due to freeze–thaw conditions. As temperatures shift due to changing climate, the timing and duration of winter freeze and spring thaw periods are likely to change, potentially causing significant impacts to local industry and economies. In this study, an ensemble of 19 climate models were used to project future temperature changes and the impact of these changes on the frost depth and timing of seasonal load changes across five instrumented pavement sites in New England. The study shows that shifts of up to 2 weeks are projected at the end of the century and that moderate variability was observed across the study region, indicating that local conditions are important for future assessments depending on the desired level of accuracy. From 1970 to 1999, the average freezing season lasted between 9 and 13 weeks in the study region. By 2000–2029, the frozen period shortens by approximately 10 days over baseline duration (10–20% reduction). By the end of the century under RCP 4.5, frozen periods are typically shorter by 4 weeks or a 30–40% reduction. However, RCP 8.5 results indicate that four out of the five sites would have no frozen period during at least six winters from 2060 to 2089.