Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate
Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2021gl093058
复制
发表时间：
2021-08-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wright, Corwin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anstey, James A.;Banyard, Timothy P.;Wright, Corwin J.
热带平流层风的准两年振荡（QBO）在2019/20北方半球冬季被破坏。我们发现，最近对定期QBO循环的破坏在许多方面与2016年相似，但由南半球的水平动量传输引发。与QBO的准规则相位进展相关联的可预测信号在中断期间丢失，并且振荡在几个月后重新出现，与如果它不间断地进展所预期的相比，在相位上发生了显著的变化。我们从气候模型预测中看到的进入赤道纬度的波动量通量增加推断，QBO的中断在未来可能会变得更加常见。因此，在未来，QBO可能是一个不太可靠的来源，可以预测的交货时间延长到几年，而不是现在。
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.