Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks
Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks
复制标题
移民为何返回贫穷国家？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Dean Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dean Yang
摘要 本文通过研究菲律宾移民的回国决策如何应对海外地区重大的、意外的汇率变化（由于亚洲金融危机），区分了回国移民的目标收入和生命周期动机。总体而言，证据支持生命周期解释：更有利的汇率冲击会导致移民回国减少。汇率提高 10% 会使 12 个月回国率降低 1.4 个百分点。然而，一些移民似乎是出于目标收入考虑：在具有中等外汇收入的家庭中，有利的汇率冲击对回国移民的影响最小，但会导致家庭投资增加。
Abstract This paper distinguishes between target-earnings and life cycle motivations for return migration by examining how Philippine migrants' return decisions respond to major, unexpected exchange rate changes in their overseas locations (due to the Asian financial crisis). Overall, the evidence favors the life cycle explanation: more favorable exchange rate shocks lead to fewer migrant returns.A10% improvement in the exchange rate reduces the 12-month return rate by 1.4 percentage points. However, some migrants appear motivated by target-earnings considerations: in households with intermediate foreign earnings, favorable exchange rate shocks have the least effect on return migration, but lead to increases in household investment.