Predicting the effects of climate change on freshwater cyanobacterial blooms requires consideration of the complete cyanobacterial life cycle
Predicting the effects of climate change on freshwater cyanobacterial blooms requires consideration of the complete cyanobacterial life cycle
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DOI：
10.1093/plankt/fbaa059
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Carey, Cayelan C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cottingham, Kathryn L.;Weathers, Kathleen C.;Carey, Cayelan C.
到目前为止，大多数研究蓝藻水华在淡水湖泊集中在远洋生活阶段。然而，研究完整的蓝藻生命周期，包括底栖生物的生命阶段，可能需要准确地预测未来的水华动态。目前的预期是，根据远洋生命阶段，由于气候变化造成的温度升高和层化作用增强，水华将继续增加。然而，分层和混合对不同的生命阶段有着截然不同的影响：虽然中上层蓝细菌受益于强烈的分层，并受到混合的不利影响，但底栖阶段可以受益于增加混合。这些潜在的抵消过程的净效应尚不清楚，因为大多数水生生态系统模型不包括底栖阶段，很少有实证研究跟踪了多年的完整生命周期。此外，对于许多区域，气候模型预测，在未来几十年中，层化现象会加强，风暴引起的混合也会增加;这些物理过程的净影响，甚至对远洋生命阶段的影响，目前还不清楚。因此，我们建议一个综合的研究议程，研究分层和混合的双重影响，对整个蓝藻的生命周期，底栖和浮游阶段，使用模型，现场观察和实验。
To date, most research on cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes has focused on the pelagic life stage. However, examining the complete cyanobacterial life cycle-including benthic life stages-may be needed to accurately predict future bloom dynamics. The current expectation, derived from the pelagic life stage, is that blooms will continue to increase due to the warmer temperatures and stronger stratification associated with climate change. However, stratification and mixing have contrasting effects on different life stages: while pelagic cyanobacteria benefit from strong stratification and are adversely affected by mixing, benthic stages can benefit from increased mixing. The net effects of these potentially counteracting processes are not yet known, since most aquatic ecosystem models do not incorporate benthic stages and few empirical studies have tracked the complete life cycle overmultiple years. Moreover, for many regions, climate models project both stronger stratification and increased storm-induced mixing in the coming decades; the net effects of those physical processes, even on the pelagic life stage, are not yet understood. We therefore recommend an integrated research agenda to study the dual effects of stratification and mixing on the complete cyanobacterial life cycle-both benthic and pelagic stages-using models, field observations and experiments.