Holocene Sea-Level Rise and the Fate of Mangrove Forests Within the Wider Caribbean Region
Holocene Sea-Level Rise and the Fate of Mangrove Forests Within the Wider Caribbean Region
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发表时间：
1994-10
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通讯作者：
R. Parkinson;R. Delaune;J. White
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作者：
R. Parkinson;R. Delaune;J. White
本文(1)回顾了从大加勒比海地区碳酸盐环境中获得的红树林泥炭沉积数据；(2)基于当前全球海平面上升预测评估了这些森林的命运。使用137cs或210pb计算的历史泥炭沉积速率平均为3.7 mm /年。使用14c计算泥炭吸积率，平均1.0 mm /年-1。历史和地质沉积速率之间的差异，也可以在盐沼环境中发现，归因于有机分解和沉积物压实。我们的概念模型是基于对全球海平面上升和泥炭增加的预测速率的比较，只有在海平面保守（低）上升约1.3毫米/年期间，历史上升速率持续的情况下，才能预测稳定的森林条件。对海平面每年上升8毫米的最佳猜测（中值）和较高估计可能会淹没位于大加勒比地区碳酸盐环境中的红树林。
This paper (1) reviews mangrove forest peat accretion data obtained from carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region and (2) evaluates the fate of these forests based upon current global eustatic sea-level rise projections. Historical peat accretion rates calculated using 137 Cs or 210 Pb average 3.7 mm yr -1 . Peat accretion rates calculated using 14 C average 1.0 mm yr -1 . The discrepancy between historical and geological accretion rates, also recognized in salt marsh settings, is attributed to organic decomposition and sediment compaction. Our conceptual model, which is based upon comparisons between projected rates of global eustatic sea level rise and peat accretion, predicts stable forest conditions only if historical accretion rates persist during a conservative (low) sea-level rise of ~1.3 mm yr 1 . Best guess (middle) and high estimates of a sea-level rise of as much as 8 mm yr 1 will likely submerge mangrove forests located within carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region.