Sensitivity of ozone to precursor emissions in urban Beijing with a Monte Carlo scheme
Sensitivity of ozone to precursor emissions in urban Beijing with a Monte Carlo scheme
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.026
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发表时间：
2010-10
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Xiao Tang;Zifa Wang;Jiang Zhu;A. Gbaguidi;Qizhong Wu;Jie Li;Tong Zhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiao Tang;Zifa Wang;Jiang Zhu;A. Gbaguidi;Qizhong Wu;Jie Li;Tong Zhu
为了解北京高地面臭氧的形成机制和确定主要贡献源，研究了一次光化学烟雾过程中地面臭氧对NO、NO2和9种NMVOC排放的敏感性。在嵌套空气质量预报模式系统（NAQPMS）的基础上，建立了50次模拟的蒙特卡罗敏感性分析方案。在每次模拟中，11个前体发射中的每一个都被一组不同的扰动所扰动。通过多元线性回归确定了臭氧对排放的敏感性。通过两个对数正态扰动标准差分别为30%和50%的实验验证了灵敏度结果的稳定性。敏感性的结果表明，目前的高表面臭氧强烈刺激NMVOC排放。在NMVOC排放中，甲醛、乙烯和烯烃的排放对臭氧的影响最大。另一方面，NOx排放对臭氧形成具有强烈的抑制作用，即使在NOx排放减少50%之后。这表明北京目前的臭氧形成处于NOx饱和状态。臭氧形成的过渡观察到从NOx饱和的NOx限制的敏感性行为与75%的NOx排放量减少。研究结果表明，上述4种NMVOC的减排对降低北京中心城区高水平的地面臭氧水平是有效的，而NOx排放的减排不足可能会导致相反的效果。
In order to understand the formation mechanisms of high surface ozone and identify the main contributor sources in Beijing, this study investigates the sensitivity of surface ozone to NO, NO2and nine types of NMVOC emissions during a photochemical smog episode. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis scheme with fifty simulations is established based on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS). At every simulation, each of the eleven precursor emissions is perturbed with a distinct set of perturbations. The sensitivities of ozone to emissions are identified by multiple linear regressions. The stability of sensitivity results is validated by two experiments with standard deviations of log-normal perturbations set as 30% and 50% respectively. The sensitivity results suggest that the current high surface ozone is strongly stimulated by NMVOC emissions. Among NMVOC emissions, formaldehyde, ethylene and olefins emissions present the greatest impacts on ozone. On the other hand, NOx emissions have a strong inhibitory effect on ozone formation, even after 50% NOx emission reduction. This indicates that the current ozone formation in Beijing is under NOx-saturated conditions. A transition of ozone formation is observed from NOx-saturated to NOx-limited sensitivity behavior with a 75% reduction of NOx emissions. This study gives the implication that abatement of the four NMVOC types mentioned above could be efficient on reducing the high levels of surface ozone in central urban Beijing, while inadequate abatement in NOx emissions probably induces reverse effects.