The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm
The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm
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DOI：
10.1111/jvh.12248
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Estes, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Razavi, H.;Waked, I.;Estes, C.
丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）的疾病负担预计将随着感染人群的年龄增长而增加。采用建模方法估计了2013年病毒血症感染、诊断、治疗和新感染的总数。此外，该模型还用于估计2013-2030年HCV感染总数、疾病进展和死亡率的变化。最后，专家小组的共识被用来收集每个国家当前的治疗实践。使用今天的治疗模式，预计在所有研究的国家中，HCV感染的总数将下降或保持不变。然而，在同一时期，患有晚期肝病的人数预计会增加。这项研究的结论是，目前的治疗率和疗效不足以管理HCV的疾病负担。因此，需要替代策略来保持患有晚期肝病和肝脏相关死亡的HCV个体数量的增加。
The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.